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Commodity Market Report 31 March 2023

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Report summary

Q1 has been a slow start to the year for the graphite market. Strong macroeconomic headwinds worldwide, combined with the removal of China’s national subsidies, have hurt demand for electric vehicles. This in turn, has seen demand for anode material fall and pressure raw materials prices - including natural graphite. Our long term view to 2050 offers a focus on the market balance of battery-grade flake which highlights a tighter market scenario than the total graphite market balance, particularly for medium size fractions. Graphite continues to be a vital material for the lithium-ion battery story and we have added deeper coverage of anode market developments and analysis of competition from alternative materials and technologies such as silicon and solid-state batteries. We have also provided a wider coverage of raw material flake and anode pricing.

Flake graphite
Amorphous graphite
Base case price forecast
- 2021-2023
- Short-term prices (2024-2027)
- Medium-term prices (2027-2033)
- Long-term prices (2033-2050)
- Refined products
Key risks to the base case
- Short term – upside
- Short term – downside
- Long term – upside
- Long term – downside
Demand in batteries
- Li-ion batteries in automotive
- Graphite-based anode materials
- Other Africa
- Brazil
- Europe
- Other
Refined supply of natural graphite

Tables and charts

This report includes 36 images and tables including:

Battery market growth and associated graphite demand
Role of the automotive sector in forecast lithium-ion battery growth
Ex-China downstream processing projects

Synthetic graphite supply by region
Major Chinese synthetic graphite manufacturers
Japanese synthetic graphite producers
Leading European synthetic graphite companies
Natural graphite price forecast
Battery-grade natural graphite price forecast, 99.95% C, China FOB
Key demand forecast data
Graphite demand by application
Plug-in EV sales by region
Automotive sales outlook by powertrain type
Lithium-ion battery automotive capacity by region
Top anode manufacturers’ capacity (end 2022)
Graphite's role as an active Li-ion anode material
Existing silicon-based capacity controlled by major graphite anode material producers
Steel market trends and non-battery graphite growth
Electric arc furnace vs basic oxygen furnace steel production with growth led by China
Refractory production and graphite demand split
Key mine supply forecast data
Natural graphite supply by region
Major Chinese graphite mining operations
Known Chinese graphite mine development projects
Africa: natural flake graphite production by country
Mozambican graphite projects in development
Current graphite operations in Madagascar
Development heating up in Tanzania
Brazil: production of natural flake graphite vs domestic crude steel
Canada planning major graphite projects
US graphite development projects
Australian projects well-advanced but are yet to begin production