Global iron ore 10-year investment horizon outlook – Q3 2022

Iron ore mining investments will contract by 35-40% during 2022-2032 when compared to 2011-2021 driven by contraction in Chinese iron ore demand as well as ample low cost supply availability from iron ore majors. However, the industry will witness a structural shift towards high-grade ore and forward integration as investors and demand preferences favour these products. Push for zero carbon mines will also translate into spurt in investments in the later half of the current decade. We foresee sustainability capex to account for 8-10% of industry's investments through 2022. A key challenge for suppliers of seaborne iron ore over the next 10+ years is how to adapt to a market that is on the verge of going ex-growth but with increasingly stringent quality requirements to meet the needs of steel decarbonisation.