Commodity Market Report

Global iron ore 10-year investment horizon outlook – Q4 2022

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Iron ore mining investments will contract by 35-40% during 2022-2032 when compared to 2011-2021 driven by contraction in Chinese iron ore demand as well as ample low cost supply availability from iron ore majors. However, the industry will witness a structural shift towards high-grade ore and forward integration as investors and demand preferences favour these products. The push to reduce carbon emissions from mining will also translate into a spurt in investments in the later half of the current decade. A key challenge for suppliers of seaborne iron ore over the next 10+ years is how to adapt to a market that is on the verge of going ex-growth but with increasingly stringent quality requirements to meet the needs of steel decarbonisation.

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