Commodity Market Report

Global iron ore short-term outlook August 2017

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31 August 2017

Global iron ore short-term outlook August 2017

Report summary

August was another rip-roaring month for iron ore with the benchmark index testing $80/t. High blast furnace utilisation and tightness in Chinese rebar should provide support around $70/t through September. But there are danger signs ahead for Q4: notably a slowdown in the Chinese property sector and enforced cutbacks to blast furnace output that could reduce demand for seaborne iron ore by 40Mt. Iron ore prices will almost certainly be lower in Q4 than Q3, but it increasingly looks like a "price correction" not a "price collapse".

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
    • Global hot metal production – still hot!
    • But winter production cuts loom
    • Chinese imports – on track to rise by 50Mt in 2017
    • Is this as good as it gets?
      • Key quarterly forecast
      • Capesize spot freight rates, US$/wmt, to China (Beilun/Baoshan)
    • Quarterly iron ore production - selected companies (Mt, 100% basis)
    • Quarterly indicators: iron ore trade, crude steel and hot metal production (Mt)

Tables and charts

This report includes 18 images and tables including:

  • Key forecast data
  • Steel production, monthly y/y growth
  • BF utilisation rate in Tangshan, China
  • Trade of iron ore, monthly volume
  • Trade of iron ore, monthly y/y change
  • Iron ore inventory at Chinese ports, by source
  • Utilisation rate at Chinese iron ore mines
  • Chart 1: Chinese imports on track to reach 1075Mt
  • Chart 2: Australia losing share in China
  • Chart 3: Chinese steel mill margins driving spot iron ore price
  • Chart 4: Coordinated price strength across ferrous and non-ferrous sectors
  • Key companies: Table 1
  • Quarterly mine production
  • Q2-17 year-on-year production change
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 1
  • Forecast data: iron ore trade and hot metal production (Mt)
  • Prices: Table 1
  • Prices: Table 2

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global iron ore markets short-term outlook data August 2017.xls

    XLS 409.50 KB

  • Document

    Global iron ore short-term outlook August 2017

    PDF 421.17 KB

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    Global iron ore short-term outlook August 2017

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