Commodity Market Report

Global iron ore short-term outlook August 2022

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Iron ore price dropped again below $100/t at the end of August as Covid-19 and a property sector slowdown pressured steel demand in China. However, supply side issues have limited the downside and China’s pro-growth efforts create upside to current prices. China's economic growth continues to be affected by Covid-19 while its real estate market is struggling. But Beijing is taking more steps to boost economic activity (investment in infrastructure projects, cutting key interest rates to increase financial liquidity). Our view remains that from an iron ore balance of risks point of view, iron ore should rebound from current level on the back of China’s stimulus measures.

Table of contents

  • Supply issues provide a floor to wobbly iron ore prices, stimulus measures in China create upside
  • Technical perspective
  • High grade ore, lump and pellet
  • Situation in Ukraine is deteriorating further
  • Weakness in India iron ore production continues
  • Chinese domestic ore supply may improve in 2H 2022
  • Capesize rates fall to six-month lows on uncertain economic outlook
  • Chinese iron ore port inventories stabilised in August

Tables and charts

This report includes the following images and tables:

  • Iron ore / steel price ratio
  • Iron ore / steel price performance
  • Iron ore prices
  • Raw material prices and hot metal spread
  • Quarterly price forecast
  • 62% Fe - Fibonacci retracement levels
  • M+1 / M+2 time spread – Seasonality
  • Pellet premium vs inventories of pellets at Chinese ports
  • Lump premium vs inventories of lump at Chinese ports
  • Supply summary snapshot
  • Quarterly market balance
  • Brazil iron ore exports
  • 15 more item(s)...

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global iron ore short-term outlook August 2022

    PDF 1.36 MB