Commodity Market Report
Global iron ore short-term outlook February 2022
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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
The eyes of the world are focussed on the escalating crisis in Ukraine. Iron ore is not top of the list of strategically important commodities to be impacted, but the inevitable disruption to supply lines could have severe consequences for certain segments of the market. Most exposed are European steelmakers that import pellet from Russia and Ukraine. The pellet market was already tightening prior to the conflict but now looks tighter still. The other big story of the month is China's latest bout of rhetoric regarding potential intervention in iron ore purchasing and pricing mechanisms. It may all come to nothing, but has still spooked the market, with spot iron ore finishing the month well down from its peak. Military conflict usually brings heightened volatility to commodity markets and iron ore is not immune. We have raised our Q1 forecast to $135/t. All longer term forecasts will be revised with our Q1-2022 outlook report.
Table of contents
- Russia and Ukraine – their role in the global iron ore market
- Rising tension, rising uncertainty
- Technical perspective
- High grade ore, lump and pellet
- Chinese steel bounces back in February
- Outlook for Q2 looks promising
- Uncertainty for Chinese imports
- A challenging year ahead for seaborne supply
- Short term outlook for Brazilian supply
- Short term outlook for Australian supply
- India – exports gaining momentum
- Iron ore port inventories up but will start to draw down as the construction season approaches
- 1 more item(s)...
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
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Ukraine's iron ore exportsRussia's iron ore exports
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Iron ore pricesRaw material prices and hot metal spreadQuarterly price forecast62% Fe - Fibonacci Retracement Levels62% Fe Forward CurvesPellet premiumLump premiumChinese BF and EAF utilisation rates (%)Daily hot metal production
- 14 more item(s)...
What's included
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