Commodity Market Report

Global iron ore short-term outlook February 2022

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The eyes of the world are focussed on the escalating crisis in Ukraine. Iron ore is not top of the list of strategically important commodities to be impacted, but the inevitable disruption to supply lines could have severe consequences for certain segments of the market. Most exposed are European steelmakers that import pellet from Russia and Ukraine. The pellet market was already tightening prior to the conflict but now looks tighter still. The other big story of the month is China's latest bout of rhetoric regarding potential intervention in iron ore purchasing and pricing mechanisms. It may all come to nothing, but has still spooked the market, with spot iron ore finishing the month well down from its peak. Military conflict usually brings heightened volatility to commodity markets and iron ore is not immune. We have raised our Q1 forecast to $135/t. All longer term forecasts will be revised with our Q1-2022 outlook report.

Table of contents

  • Russia and Ukraine – their role in the global iron ore market
  • Rising tension, rising uncertainty
  • Technical perspective
  • High grade ore, lump and pellet
  • Chinese steel bounces back in February
  • Outlook for Q2 looks promising
  • Uncertainty for Chinese imports
  • A challenging year ahead for seaborne supply
  • Short term outlook for Brazilian supply
  • Short term outlook for Australian supply
  • India – exports gaining momentum
  • Iron ore port inventories up but will start to draw down as the construction season approaches
  • Dry bulk freight market recovering from seasonal weakness

Tables and charts

This report includes 26 images and tables including:

  • Ukraine's iron ore exports
  • Russia's iron ore exports
  • Iron ore prices
  • Raw material prices and hot metal spread
  • Quarterly price forecast
  • 62% Fe - Fibonacci Retracement Levels
  • 62% Fe Forward Curves
  • Pellet premium
  • Lump premium
  • Chinese BF and EAF utilisation rates (%)
  • Daily hot metal production
  • Chinese iron ore imports
  • Chinese imports (by source)
  • Brazilian iron ore exports
  • Chinese iron ore port stocks (by origin)
  • Australian iron ore exports
  • Australian iron ore exports: majors only
  • Indian iron ore exports
  • Indian pellet production
  • Chinese iron ore port inventories
  • Chinese total steel inventories
  • Brazil – China freight rate
  • West Australia – China freight rate

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global iron ore short-term outlook February 2022

    PDF 1.20 MB