Commodity Market Report
Global iron ore short-term outlook January 2022
Report summary
Iron ore has bounced back with a vengeance with spot prices approaching $150/t CFR in the final few days of January. We have raised our Q1 forecast to $125/t (was $90/t), lifting our full year forecast to $105/t. We still favour a downward trajectory from Q2 onwards, but all recent indicators suggest the decline will be shallower than previously thought and the starting point higher than previously thought. Read this report for our latest assessment of short-term supply/demand trends and pricing.
Table of contents
- Upgrade mode
- A strong start to 2022
- Technical perspective
- High grade ore, lump and pellet
-
Supply side struggles
- Short term outlook for Brazilian supply
- Short term outlook for Australian supply
- India – a big year ahead for pellet exports?
- China: strong December, stronger January
- Scrap tightness
- Post Olympic demand boost?
- Chinese imports finish 2021 on a low
- Iron ore port inventories down from increased domestic demand
- Seasonal slow start to the year for the dry bulk freight market
Tables and charts
This report includes 23 images and tables including:
- Iron ore prices
- Raw material prices and hot metal spread
- Key quarterly forecast
- 62% Fe - Fibonacci Retracement Levels
- 62% Fe Forward Curves
- Pellet premium
- Lump premium
- Brazilian iron ore exports
- Chinese iron ore port stocks (by origin)
- Australian iron ore exports
- Australian iron ore exports: majors only
- Indian iron ore production
- Indian iron ore exports
- Chinese BF and EAF utilisation rates (%)
- Daily production of CISA member companies
- Chinese iron ore imports
- Chinese imports (by source)
- Chinese iron ore port inventories
- Chinese total steel inventories
- Brazil – China freight rate
- West Australia – China freight rate
What's included
This report contains:
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