Global iron ore short-term outlook January 2023
Iron ore rallied above US$125/t in January as markets cheer for China to be the stabilizing force in 2023. But we will have to wait for the spring in China to see fundamental support from the demand side. We anticipate an improving macro backdrop in the EU and China (particularly in H2 2023) while the mined supply will remain relatively tight. This is reflected in leading miners such as Vale and Anglo American snipping their 2023 production guidance. We have increased our price forecast for 2023 to US$110/t reflecting optimism in China’s economic rebound post-Covid.