Global iron ore short-term outlook July 2023

Iron ore spot prices increased further to US$113.40/t (+US$0.50/t m-o-m) in July, as the ferrous market is pricing in the release of detailed supportive measures following the July Politburo meeting by the Chinese government. The highlight of the meeting is a pro-growth shift toward the property sector, with the additional aim of boosting private confidence and household consumption. The iron ore market continues to look past the concerns of subdued growth, a faltering property sector, and steel production cuts affecting iron ore demand. However, we maintain our view that iron ore prices will decline to US$105/t by Q4 2023 and average US$100/t in 2024.