Commodity Market Report
Global iron ore short-term outlook May 2022
Report summary
Iron ore markets alternated between demand concerns and expectations of a demand rebound in China as evident in two halves of May. Iron ore prices traded in a $20/t range during the month to average $134/t. Prices for rest of Q2 and Q3 will levitate around $140/t led by improving demand prospects for China. Chinese steel production is expected to turn a corner as the demand environment is seen improving. But we should caution that the growth could be slower than the market is hoping for. Meanwhile supply continued to stay tight especially from Brazil. Unseasonal rainfall and flooding in Pilbara is a key monitorable to watch out for as it can potentially create some operational issues at mines and ports. Further the move by Indian government to raise export tariffs on iron ore and pellets market will not augur well for an already clutched supply. There is no quick fix to seaborne supply constraints which will continue to play catch up to demand this year.
Table of contents
- China pledge support
- Technical perspective
- High grade ore, lump and pellet
- Update on Ukraine
- Raise in export tariffs to stymie Indian exports
- Dry bulk freight market seasonal improvement kicks in
- Iron ore port inventories down 10 Mt in May
Tables and charts
This report includes 26 images and tables including:
- Iron ore prices
- Raw material prices and hot metal spread
- Quarterly price forecast
- 62% Fe - Fibonacci Retracement Levels
- M+1 / M+2 time spread – Seasonality
- Pellet premium
- Lump premium
- Ukraine’s concentrate production and exports
- Russia’s pellet production and exports
- China BF and EAF utilisation rate
- Daily production of CISA member companies
- China iron ore imports
- China imports by origin
- Iron ore supply / exports snapshot
- Brazilian iron ore exports
- Brazil exports by shippers
- Australian iron ore exports
- Australian exports by shippers
- India iron ore exports
- Quality mix of non-agglomerated exports
- China domestic iron ore mines utilization
- China BF burben mix: Pellet
- Brazil-China freight rates
- West Australia – China freight rates
- Chinese iron ore port inventories
- Traders’ iron ore stocks at Chinese ports
What's included
This report contains:
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