Global iron ore short-term outlook October 2023

Iron ore prices have remained elevated through the last two months. October averaged US$118.5/t, down by only US$2/t month-on-month, as more funds are being poured into the Chinese economy. In addition, the lack of restrictions on steel output – as economic growth is prioritised – has added a positive undertone to the prevailing sentiment. However, despite the lack of strictly enforced government-led production cuts in China, could we start seeing more steel mills cutting output voluntarily due to the poor margin environment? What would be the effect of China’s weak construction season on iron ore prices in Q4 2023? Are the Chinese government’s efforts to bolster its ailing property sector bearing fruits? Will growth in demand be meaningful as China’s economy improves? Find out our views and what they mean for iron ore prices in our report.