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Commodity Market Report

Global Iron Ore Strategic Planning Outlook – Q1 2022

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31 March 2022

Global Iron Ore Strategic Planning Outlook – Q1 2022

Report summary

With global pig iron production on track to remain close to last year’s record high and iron ore supply chains stretched, 2022 is shaping up to be another tight year for seaborne iron ore. We have raised our CY 2022 price forecast by 50% to $135/t CFR. No change to our view that prices will trend lower over the next five years in anticipation of easing supply constraints and stagnating/declining Chinese demand, but we have moderated the timing and scale of the future price "correction". We have raised our long term (mid-cycle) price to $75/t CFR (real 2022 terms) versus our previous forecast of $70/t. The driver is primarily “cost push” rather than “demand pull”. Rising energy, labour and other input costs all play a role, along with heightened geopolitical risk and rising ESG compliance costs. Our current assessment of iron ore market dynamics and long term price outlook are presented in this report.

Table of contents

    • Overview
    • Demand revisions
    • Supply revisions
    • Seaborne Trade
    • Price Forecast
  • Simplified market balance and implied clearing price:
  • Price versus costs
  • Premiums and discounts
  • Price outlook for lump
  • Price outlook for pellets
    • Forecasting rationale
    • Long term price forecast raised to $75/t CFR (previously $70/t)
    • Incentive price analysis
    • Key swing factors that could impact the long-term view:
  • Overview
  • Asia
    • Steel production in China to stay rangebound in 2022 and contract in long term
    • EAF penetration to slow down led by delay in carbon peak deadline
    • Path to carbon neutral to weigh on iron ore demand
    • Iron ore imports to decline slower than consumption
    • Indian steel production to rise 8% in 2022
    • Indian steelmakers to add 90Mt in the next decade
    • India iron ore consumption to rise 3.3% through 2050
  • Japan
    • Impact of decarbonisation in Japan and South Korea
  • Taiwan
  • South East Asia
  • Other Asia
  • Europe
  • EU and the UK
  • Turkey
  • CIS
  • Russia
  • Ukraine
  • North America
  • United States
  • Mexico
  • Canada
  • South America
  • Brazil
  • Other South American countries
  • Australia
  • Middle East and North Africa
  • Iran
  • Algeria
  • Egypt
  • Africa
  • South Africa
    • Key changes to the seaborne supply forecast this quarter:
    • Key trends by product type
    • Sinter fines
    • Pellet feed
    • Lump
    • Pellet
    • Brazil
    • Chile
    • Peru
    • Canada
    • United States
    • Liberia
    • Mauritania
    • Sierra Leone
    • Guinea
    • South Africa
    • Europe
    • Russia
    • Ukraine
    • Kazakhstan
    • China
    • India
    • Asia (excluding China and India)
    • Iran
    • Iron Ore Definitions and Value Chain
    • Characteristics of Saleable Iron Ore Products
    • Iron Ore Value Chain
    • Australia
    • Brazil
    • China
    • India
    • Indian reserves and production
    • Key Indian producers
    • Indian policy framework
    • Africa
    • Canada
    • Russian Federation/Ukraine/Kazakhstan
    • Sweden
    • Chile
    • Peru
    • Introduction:
    • Methodology:

Tables and charts

This report includes 57 images and tables including:

  • Tier 3 and Chinese domestic supply requirement
  • Implied iron ore price 2022 and 2023
  • Price and cash cost, by percentile contestable market, CFR China)
  • Premium and discount for high/low grade iron ore (US$/t and %)
  • Iron ore lump premium
  • Blast furnace pellet premium
  • Overview of global steel and iron ore market
  • China key demand data
  • JKT demand dynamics
  • Korean iron ore demand to overtake Japans'
  • S.E.Asia Iron ore consumption
  • Indonesia to gain share in S.E.Asia
  • Europe: key demand forecast data
  • EU + UK share of iron ore consumption mix
  • EU + UK share of global iron ore trade
  • Turkey blast furnace consumption mix
  • Turkey Iron ore demand-supply dynamics
  • Key demand forecast data
  • North America: key demand forecast data
  • Canada iron ore consumption mix
  • Canada iron ore supply dynamics
  • South America steel and iron ore market forecasts
  • South america iron ore consumption mix by countries
  • Venezuela iron ore consumption
  • Middle East and North Africa: key demand forecast data
  • Iran DRI and HM production
  • Iran Iron ore product mix
  • Egypt & Algeria Iron ore consumption
  • Egypt & Algeria DRI production
  • Iron ore price forecast
  • Price forecast revision: the five-year view
  • Iron ore price forecast (a long-term perspective)
  • Incentive price analysis: selected projects
  • Project incentive prices (basis 62% Fe equivalent, CFR China)
  • China hot metal and iron ore dynamics
  • China BOF and EAF production
  • China long term iron ore supply dynamics
  • Asia (ex-China): key demand forecast data
  • India crude steel production
  • India monthly steel production
  • India capacity additions
  • India iron production
  • India iron ore consumption mix
  • Iron ore production and exports by major country
  • Iron ore exports by key company
  • China: domestic iron ore supply forecast revisions
  • Contestable Private Production at different price levels (Wet tonnes)
  • Indian iron ore production
  • Indian iron ore consumption
  • Iron ore grade comparison
  • Figure 1 Iron ore size depictions depicts lump ore, sinter feed, and pellet feed for visual reference.
  • Figure 2. The Iron Ore Value Chain
  • Figure 3. Agglomerated products
  • Figure 4. The blast furnace / basic oxygen furnace method (BF-BOF)
  • Figure 5. Direct-reduced iron / electric arc furnace method (DRI/EAF)
  • Simplified iron ore global balance
  • Iron ore Market Balance and Prices

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global Iron Ore Strategic Planning Outlook – Q1 2022

    PDF 2.12 MB