Global Iron Ore Strategic Planning Outlook – Q1 2022
Report summary
Table of contents
-
What’s changed since Q4 2021?
- Overview
- Demand revisions
- Supply revisions
-
The five-year view - what’s changed?
- Seaborne Trade
- Price Forecast
- Simplified market balance and implied clearing price:
- Price versus costs
- Premiums and discounts
- Price outlook for lump
- Price outlook for pellets
-
The long term outlook (post-2026)
- Forecasting rationale
- Long term price forecast raised to $75/t CFR (previously $70/t)
- Incentive price analysis
- Key swing factors that could impact the long-term view:
- Overview
- Asia
-
China
- Steel production in China to stay rangebound in 2022 and contract in long term
- EAF penetration to slow down led by delay in carbon peak deadline
- Path to carbon neutral to weigh on iron ore demand
- Iron ore imports to decline slower than consumption
-
India
- Indian steel production to rise 8% in 2022
- Indian steelmakers to add 90Mt in the next decade
- India iron ore consumption to rise 3.3% through 2050
- Japan
-
South Korea
- Impact of decarbonisation in Japan and South Korea
- Taiwan
- South East Asia
- Other Asia
- Europe
- EU and the UK
- Turkey
- CIS
- Russia
- Ukraine
- North America
- United States
- Mexico
- Canada
- South America
- Brazil
- Other South American countries
- Australia
- Middle East and North Africa
- Iran
- Algeria
- Egypt
- Africa
- South Africa
-
Overview
- Key changes to the seaborne supply forecast this quarter:
- Key trends by product type
- Sinter fines
- Pellet feed
- Lump
- Pellet
-
Regional analysis: key changes to the forecast
- Brazil
- Chile
- Peru
- Canada
- United States
- Liberia
- Mauritania
- Sierra Leone
- Guinea
- South Africa
- Europe
- Russia
- Ukraine
- Kazakhstan
- China
- India
- Asia (excluding China and India)
- Iran
- Iron Ore Definitions and Value Chain
- Characteristics of Saleable Iron Ore Products
- Iron Ore Value Chain
- Australia
- Brazil
- China
- India
- Indian reserves and production
- Key Indian producers
- Indian policy framework
- Africa
- Canada
- Russian Federation/Ukraine/Kazakhstan
- Sweden
- Chile
- Peru
- Introduction:
- Methodology:
Tables and charts
This report includes 57 images and tables including:
- Tier 3 and Chinese domestic supply requirement
- Implied iron ore price 2022 and 2023
- Price and cash cost, by percentile contestable market, CFR China)
- Premium and discount for high/low grade iron ore (US$/t and %)
- Iron ore lump premium
- Blast furnace pellet premium
- Overview of global steel and iron ore market
- China key demand data
- JKT demand dynamics
- Korean iron ore demand to overtake Japans'
- S.E.Asia Iron ore consumption
- Indonesia to gain share in S.E.Asia
- Europe: key demand forecast data
- EU + UK share of iron ore consumption mix
- EU + UK share of global iron ore trade
- Turkey blast furnace consumption mix
- Turkey Iron ore demand-supply dynamics
- Key demand forecast data
- North America: key demand forecast data
- Canada iron ore consumption mix
- Canada iron ore supply dynamics
- South America steel and iron ore market forecasts
- South america iron ore consumption mix by countries
- Venezuela iron ore consumption
- Middle East and North Africa: key demand forecast data
- Iran DRI and HM production
- Iran Iron ore product mix
- Egypt & Algeria Iron ore consumption
- Egypt & Algeria DRI production
- Iron ore price forecast
- Price forecast revision: the five-year view
- Iron ore price forecast (a long-term perspective)
- Incentive price analysis: selected projects
- Project incentive prices (basis 62% Fe equivalent, CFR China)
- China hot metal and iron ore dynamics
- China BOF and EAF production
- China long term iron ore supply dynamics
- Asia (ex-China): key demand forecast data
- India crude steel production
- India monthly steel production
- India capacity additions
- India iron production
- India iron ore consumption mix
- Iron ore production and exports by major country
- Iron ore exports by key company
- China: domestic iron ore supply forecast revisions
- Contestable Private Production at different price levels (Wet tonnes)
- Indian iron ore production
- Indian iron ore consumption
- Iron ore grade comparison
- Figure 1 Iron ore size depictions depicts lump ore, sinter feed, and pellet feed for visual reference.
- Figure 2. The Iron Ore Value Chain
- Figure 3. Agglomerated products
- Figure 4. The blast furnace / basic oxygen furnace method (BF-BOF)
- Figure 5. Direct-reduced iron / electric arc furnace method (DRI/EAF)
- Simplified iron ore global balance
- Iron ore Market Balance and Prices
What's included
This report contains:
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