With global pig iron production on track to remain close to last year’s record high and iron ore supply chains stretched, 2022 is shaping up to be another tight year for seaborne iron ore. We have raised our CY 2022 price forecast by 50% to $135/t CFR. No change to our view that prices will trend lower over the next five years in anticipation of easing supply constraints and stagnating/declining Chinese demand, but we have moderated the timing and scale of the future price "correction". We have raised our long term (mid-cycle) price to $75/t CFR (real 2022 terms) versus our previous forecast of $70/t. The driver is primarily “cost push” rather than “demand pull”. Rising energy, labour and other input costs all play a role, along with heightened geopolitical risk and rising ESG compliance costs. Our current assessment of iron ore market dynamics and long term price outlook are presented in this report.