Global lead investment horizon outlook - Q3 2023
Cost push inflation has generated high pay settlements and wider inflationary pressures remain in place . Consequently high interest rates raised in response have increased living and borrowing costs and are are pushing economies towards recession. But state subsidies have stimulated the EV market in North America and EVs continue to increase penetration in Europe and China. OE lead demand is solid because stop start technology in ICE and plug-in hybrid vehicles continues to increase market share. Alongside robust consumption, refined lead supply is struggling to keep up and compensate for the metal being consumed that last year came from stock. Having already been weak during the first half of 2023, primary production should continue to be encumbered by mine disruption in the second half. Even with mine supply forecast to ramp up in 2024-2025, stocks of concentrate and metal are not expected to exceed long-term levels until 2026 and beyond.