Commodity Market Report

Lead Metal Market Report Q1 2019

28 March 2019

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What’s the key takeaway from this report?

Years of severe tightness in lead concentrate supplies are coming to an end as the mine supply response to the higher prices of recent years finally kicks in. This will combine with softening lead demand growth in the medium term to overturn the large refined lead deficits of the past four years and transition the market into substantial surpluses.

What key questions does this report answer?

As the market adjusts, will more smelter capacity be required?
Which sectors have pulled down Chinese lead demand?
How will the price react to a changing lead metal market?

This report also comes with charts and data sets, including this one, which forecasts global consumption patterns out to 2040.

28 March 2019

Lead Metal Market Report Q1 2019

Report summary

The significant lead concentrate supply tightness of recent years now eases with new mine production coming stream, leading to meaningful surpluses from 2021. Refined lead availability recovers after four years of substantial deficits from this additional primary supply plus weaker Chinese consumption, pushing the lead metal market balance into surplus beyond this year. We forecast weaker prices in the medium and longer term with softer lead demand growth from Chinese auto and ebike sectors, although general ROW performance remains good. Mine supply growth will average 3.7% p.a. from 2019-2023 but with adequate refining capacity for smelters to consume this additional feed. Total global stocks of refined metal are nevertheless slow to recover and will remain at historical lows until 2021, after which increased lead concentrate supply will rapidly restore normal – and then excessive – stock levels in terms of days of consumption.

Key points
Demand – what's changed?
Supply - what's changed?
Mine Production
- Africa
- Asia
- Asian lead mine capability
- Europe
- Latin America
- Middle East
- North America
- Oceania
- Oceania lead mine capability
- Russia and the Caspian
- Changes to projects listing
Smelter and refinery Production
- Africa
- Asia
- Asian refined lead production
- Europe
- Latin America
- Middle East
- North America
- Oceania
- Russia and the Caspian
Overview
Review and forecast by region
- Asia
- China
- India
- Japan
- Europe
- North America
- US
- Mexico
- Latin America
- Other regions
Principal Uses of Lead
- Batteries
- Non-Battery
Refined lead market transitions from recent tightness into meaningful surpluses
Long-term outlook

Tables and charts

This report includes 44 images and tables including:

Global refined lead production capability
Regional demand changes from previous long-term outlook

Global lead consumption
Global refined lead supply-demand balance and price
Global primary versus secondary refined lead output
Global refined lead stocks and price
African lead mine capability
European lead mine capability
Latin American lead mine capability
Middle Eastern lead mine capability
North American lead mine capability
Russia and the Caspian lead mine capability
Global lead mine production capability and mine projects
Global lead mine production capability and market adjustments
Analysis of the lead-zinc mine production ratio
African refined lead production
European refined lead production
Latin American refined lead production
Middle East refined lead production
North American refined lead production
Oceania refined lead production
Russia and the Caspian refined lead production
Chinese lead demand in auto and ebike batteries (excluding trade)
Automotive demand accelerates past ebikes
Industrial batteries grow strongly in longer term
Auto and industrial sectors show strong growth, 2-wheelers stay significant but 3-wheelers flat
Even spread of demand across sectors
Automotive to overtake industrial sector
Asian lead consumption
Industrial dominates as autos increasingly imported
Auto replacement further declines due to imports
European lead consumption
Auto OE sector stable, stationary provides medium-term growth, automotive replacement starts decline
US end use by sector
Auto OE and replacement offset weaker sectors
North American lead consumption
Latin American lead consumption
Middle East lead consumption
Oceania lead consumption