Global lead long-term outlook Q1 2021
The coronavirus continues to dominate the current and future prospects for lead markets, with fallout anticipated to last for years, if not decades. However, the resilience of lead demand has exceeded many expectations and will, this year, match that of pre-pandemic 2019. This is a remarkable recovery after the abrupt slowing of global economic activity a year ago. Consumption will average growth of 2.2% pa in the medium term and 2.0% pa out to 2040, chiefly driven by continued strength in the Chinese and Indian markets. Mine output was badly affected last year and will struggle to develop much momentum in the coming years, managing just 0.2% pa medium-term expansion, increasing to 0.8% pa in the long term. This situation creates better alignment between supply and demand, pulling the market into better balance for both the medium and long terms.