Commodity Market Report

Global lead long-term outlook Q3 2020

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The impacts from the coronavirus pandemic will continue to reverberate through lead markets for years to come. We have revised our mine output to fall by -6.3% in 2020 after being hit with temporary idling of mines worldwide plus some reclosures after new flare-ups of Covid-19 infection. This will be followed by fairly modest expansion averaging 2.0% over the subsequent five years. The improved demand situation in some economies, led chiefly by China, has brought an increase in our forecast for 2020 by 165 kt over the previous LTO, now totalling 12.2 million tonnes of consumption. The smaller increase in total production therefore means our forecast refined lead surplus for 2020 falls by about 100 kt to total 377 kt excess refined metal. The following years also show a reduced surplus, reaching an essentially balanced market by 2024.

Table of contents

Tables and charts

This report includes 47 images and tables including:

  • Global lead demand, 2000 to 2040
  • Lead supply, demand, balance and price, 2020-2030
  • Global refined lead supply-demand balance and price
  • Global refined lead stocks and price
  • Global lead consumption
  • Regional demand changes from previous long-term outlook
  • Industrial dominates with increased auto imports
  • Auto replacement further declines due to imports
  • European lead consumption
  • Latin American lead consumption
  • Middle East lead consumption
  • Oceania lead consumption
  • Global refined lead production capability
  • Lead key forecasts
  • Scenario implications for lead prices
  • Lead mine production is unlikely to completely recover in 2021 what it is set to lose in 2020
  • Chinese lead demand in auto and ebike batteries (excluding trade)
  • Automotive demand now clearly ahead of ebikes
  • Industrial continues to grow; auto dominates
  • Strong growth in automotive and industrial sectors, 2-wheelers significant and 3-wheelers moderate
  • Even distribution of demand across sectors
  • Automotive to overtake industrial sector
  • Asian lead consumption
  • Automotive replacement and stationary in growth, auto OE and motive power in decline
  • US end-use by sector
  • Stationary and auto offset weaker sectors
  • North American lead consumption
  • African lead mine capability
  • Asian lead mine capability
  • European lead mine capability
  • Latin American lead mine capability
  • Middle Eastern lead mine capability
  • North American lead mine capability
  • Oceanian lead mine capability
  • Russia and the Caspian lead mine capability
  • Global lead mine production capability and mine projects
  • Global lead mine production capability and market adjustments
  • Analysis of the lead:zinc mine production ratio
  • Changes to projects listing
  • African refined lead production
  • European refined lead production
  • Latin American refined lead production
  • Middle East refined lead production
  • North American refined lead production
  • Oceania refined lead production
  • Russia and the Caspian refined lead production

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global lead long-term outlook Q3 2020

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