Global lead long-term outlook Q3 2020 Report

Commodity Market Report 29 September 2020

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Report summary

The impacts from the coronavirus pandemic will continue to reverberate through lead markets for years to come. We have revised our mine output to fall by -6.3% in 2020 after being hit with temporary idling of mines worldwide plus some reclosures after new flare-ups of Covid-19 infection. This will be followed by fairly modest expansion averaging 2.0% over the subsequent five years. The improved demand situation in some economies, led chiefly by China, has brought an increase in our forecast for 2020 by 165 kt over the previous LTO, now totalling 12.2 million tonnes of consumption. The smaller increase in total production therefore means our forecast refined lead surplus for 2020 falls by about 100 kt to total 377 kt excess refined metal. The following years also show a reduced surplus, reaching an essentially balanced market by 2024.

Demand outlook
Supply outlook
Market balance and price outlook
- Supply-side changes
Overview
Changes since Q2 2020
Demand in detail
Asia
- China
- India
- Japan
Europe
North America
- US
- Mexico
Latin America
Other regions
Regional mine production capability
- Africa
- Asia
- Europe
- Latin America
- Middle East
- North America
- Oceania
- Russia and the Caspian
Regional smelter and refinery production capability
- Africa
- Asia
- Asian refined lead production
- Europe
- Latin America
- Middle East
- North America
- Oceania
- Russia and the Caspian

Tables and charts

This report includes 47 images and tables including:

Global lead demand, 2000 to 2040
Lead supply, demand, balance and price, 2020-2030
Global refined lead supply-demand balance and price

Global refined lead stocks and price
Global lead consumption
Regional demand changes from previous long-term outlook
Industrial dominates with increased auto imports
Auto replacement further declines due to imports
European lead consumption
Latin American lead consumption
Middle East lead consumption
Oceania lead consumption
Global refined lead production capability
Lead key forecasts
Scenario implications for lead prices
Lead mine production is unlikely to completely recover in 2021 what it is set to lose in 2020
Chinese lead demand in auto and ebike batteries (excluding trade)
Automotive demand now clearly ahead of ebikes
Industrial continues to grow; auto dominates
Strong growth in automotive and industrial sectors, 2-wheelers significant and 3-wheelers moderate
Even distribution of demand across sectors
Automotive to overtake industrial sector
Asian lead consumption
Automotive replacement and stationary in growth, auto OE and motive power in decline
US end-use by sector
Stationary and auto offset weaker sectors
North American lead consumption
African lead mine capability
Asian lead mine capability
European lead mine capability
Latin American lead mine capability
Middle Eastern lead mine capability
North American lead mine capability
Oceanian lead mine capability
Russia and the Caspian lead mine capability
Global lead mine production capability and mine projects
Global lead mine production capability and market adjustments
Analysis of the lead:zinc mine production ratio
Changes to projects listing
African refined lead production
European refined lead production
Latin American refined lead production
Middle East refined lead production
North American refined lead production
Oceania refined lead production
Russia and the Caspian refined lead production