Global lead long-term outlook Q4 2019

Global mine supply growth will remain modest in the medium term, increasing by just 0.4% pa for 2020-2025, although this comes after contracting by 1.1% pa from 2014-2019. We have substantially cut our supply forecast for the two largest mining operations and assumed other supply losses as a result of high zinc TCs acting as a disincentive to lead/zinc miners. Consumption will recover after contracting this year to average 1.4% pa growth for 2020-2025, with India one of the key and consistent drivers. The maturing Chinese lead market is now increasingly aligned with general global market trends. The phenomenally high demand growth of the past two decades has subsided as the country's economic expansion has slowed. Consequently, China will only manage 1.1% pa growth for 2020-2025. However, an improvement in European auto demand has allowed us to slightly lift our overall demand forecast compared with the Q3 LTO.