Commodity Market Report

Global lead long-term outlook Q4 2019

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16 December 2019

Global lead long-term outlook Q4 2019

Report summary

Global mine supply growth will remain modest in the medium term, increasing by just 0.4% pa for 2020-2025, although this comes after contracting by 1.1% pa from 2014-2019. We have substantially cut our supply forecast for the two largest mining operations and assumed other supply losses as a result of high zinc TCs acting as a disincentive to lead/zinc miners. Consumption will recover after contracting this year to average 1.4% pa growth for 2020-2025, with India one of the key and consistent drivers. The maturing Chinese lead market is now increasingly aligned with general global market trends. The phenomenally high demand growth of the past two decades has subsided as the country's economic expansion has slowed. Consequently, China will only manage 1.1% pa growth for 2020-2025. However, an improvement in European auto demand has allowed us to slightly lift our overall demand forecast compared with the Q3 LTO.

Table of contents

  • Key points
  • Demand – what's changed?
  • Supply - what's changed?

Tables and charts

No table or charts specified

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    slide_pack_lead_lto_q4_2019.pdf

    PDF 1.41 MB

  • Document

    Lead_Tables_LTO_Q4_2019.pdf

    PDF 1.89 MB

  • Document

    Market balance and prices lead LTO Q4 2019.xls

    XLS 424.50 KB

  • Document

    Demand analysis lead LTO Q4 2019.xls

    XLS 522.50 KB

  • Document

    Demand main changes lead LTO Q4 2019.xls

    XLS 159.50 KB

  • Document

    Supply main changes lead LTO Q4 2019.xls

    XLS 404.00 KB

  • Document

    Production rankings lead LTO Q4 2019.xls

    XLS 74.00 KB

  • Document

    Equity Production lead LTO Q4 2019.xls

    XLS 6.12 MB

  • Document

    Mine analysis lead LTO Q4 2019.xls

    XLS 2.91 MB

  • Document

    Smelter analysis lead LTO Q4 2019.xls

    XLS 1.32 MB

  • Document

    Refinery analysis lead LTO Q4 2019.xls

    XLS 1.30 MB

  • Document

    Global lead long-term outlook Q4 2019

    ZIP 6.37 MB

  • Document

    Global lead long-term outlook Q4 2019

    ZIP 6.37 MB

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