Commodity Market Report

Global lead short-term outlook August 2017



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Report summary

Lead proved to be a laggard during August finishing up 3.3% at $2373/t, barely gaining value and being left behind by the other base metals. Mostly trading in a narrow range, it did manage a one-day flirtation with an eight-month price high, but this lasted just one day. The trigger for this price spike was the UN sanctions again North Korea cutting lead concentrate supplies to China in a time when the latter is desperate for supply. Worries also persist over global refined metal supply with exchange stocks falling further and supply of lead scrap tightening even more as peak demand season approaches.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Data tables lead STO August 2017.xls

    XLS 293.00 KB

  • Document

    Global lead short-term outlook August 2017

    PDF 504.36 KB

  • Document

    Global lead short-term outlook August 2017

    ZIP 638.40 KB

Table of contents

    • Lead key forecasts
  • Supply-demand balances
    • China
    • North America
    • Europe
    • Japan
      • Global quarterly refined lead consumption (kt)
      • Concentrate market TCs
    • Mine production news
      • Global refined lead consumption (kt Pb)
      • Global lead mine production (Lead in Concentrate)
      • Global refined lead production (kt Pb)
      • Global primary and secondary refined lead production (kt Pb)
      • Lead stocks, prices and premia
      • Global lead supply and demand (kt)

Tables and charts

This report includes 22 images and tables including:


  • Supply-demand balances: Table 1
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 2
  • Executive summary: Table 1
  • Lead mine capability, adjustment and production - ROW, China and Global (kt Pb)
  • Demand: Table 1
  • Supply: Table 1
  • Supply: Table 3
  • Supply: Table 4
  • Supply: Table 5
  • Supply: Table 6
  • Supply: Table 7
  • Supply: Table 8


  • Lead price little changed as other LME metals gain value
  • Some decoupling of lead price and dollar value as supply concerns prompt small spike
  • Tightening lead mine supply has increased Chinese imports of North Korean concentrates
  • Price spread contango remains steady
  • Falling SHFE stocks points to refined lead supply worries
  • Chinese refined lead imports now running at annualised 100kt
  • Total LME lead stocks stabilise for the moment, but cancelled warrants increase
  • Outflows of LME lead from warehouses reduces in quantity and frequency
  • Chinese car production back into year-on-year growth
  • Supply: Image 1

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