Commodity Market Report

Global lead short-term outlook August 2023

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While lead's performance marked it out among LME metals in August, its strength hasn't been shared equally in China and the ROW. The LME/SHFE arbitrage therefore widened towards its level in June that prompted a spike in refined exports from China that spilled over into July. SHFE stocks have continued to recover despite those exports, which appear to have been easily accommodated in the ROW market which has suffered primary smelter production shortfalls in the first half of the year. Prevailing concentrate market tightness means that mounting mine supply losses should continue to dictate primary smelter output until curtailments are reversed and other mines start supplying too. Meanwhile, as OEM demand shows signs of weakness, the importance of the automotive replacement battery sector and growth in non motive standby applications explains much of lead's relative resilience compared with other metals .

Table of contents

  • Prices
  • Global
  • Europe
  • China.
  • India
    • Concentrate market
    • Mines news
    • Corporate activity
    • Smelter news

Tables and charts

This report includes 16 images and tables including:

  • LME lead rose by 3% in August in contrast to copper nickel and zinc
  • Open Interest surges on SHFE Pb Contract
  • Refined Lead Premia and Scrap Prices
  • Price forecasts and global quarterly supply/demand balances (kt)
  • Quarterly Consumption
  • Concentrate market TCs
  • Arb in August was almost as wide as it has ever been and so still a significant cost to Chinese concentrate importers
  • Recent customs data show Chinese smelters' strong appetite for more complex as well as regular lead concentrates
  • Acid prices are still relatively weak but recent increases would suggest that smelters can shift their output
  • Lead mine capability, market adjustment and production (kt Pb)
  • Global refined lead consumption (kt Pb)
  • Global lead mine production (lead in concentrate, kt Pb)
  • Global refined lead production (kt Pb)
  • Global primary and secondary refined lead production (kt Pb)
  • Lead stocks, prices and premia
  • Global lead supply and demand (kt)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global lead short-term outlook August 2023

    PDF 1.09 MB