Global lead short-term outlook December 2019 Report

Commodity Market Report 20 December 2019

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Report summary

The price decline from late-October's peak was maintained into December, pushing the lead price below the psychologically significant $1900/t barrier. The price dipped to $1866/t before recovering slightly to reach $1896/t, as cash-to-three-month price spreads opened to their highest contango since April and sentiment slumped around lead. Spot TCs for Chinese concentrate imports consolidated in December with total TC plus arbitrage values now appreciably higher than earlier in the year, while domestic TCs have also lifted. Increased concentrate buying does not foreshadow major oversupply next year but will keep concentrate stocks from becoming excessive.

China
India
US
Raw materials market
Mine production news

Tables and charts

This report includes 13 images and tables including:

Chinese auto production in second year of decline
Global quarterly refined lead consumption (kt)
The SHFE/LME arbitrage value in concentrate trade has been stable in December by recent standards

A total spot TC plus SHFE/LME arbitrage value of the January-June average of $165/t can be generated with a TC of $115/t today
Concentrate market TCs
Lead mine capability, market adjustment and production (kt Pb)
Global refined lead consumption (kt Pb)
Global lead mine production (Lead in Concentrate)
Global refined lead production (kt Pb)
Global primary and secondary refined lead production (kt Pb)
Lead stocks, prices and premia
Global lead supply and demand (kt)