Commodity Market Report
Global lead short-term outlook July 2023
Report summary
The late-July rally in SHFE prices to their highest level since December has attracted attention. However, LME prices remain relatively stronger. Indeed, the LME/SHFE arbitrage in June was on a par with December's, and trade data now show that this coincided with another wave of Chinese refined exports in June. While the SHFE's price rallied in July, the LME's did as well, albeit from a higher relative base. The arbitrage has therefore narrowed. Peñasquito's strike continues to contribute to firm lead markets, with a tight concentrate market meaning that refined supply will be curtailed because smelters are unlikely to replace lost feed. It's supportive of refined prices generally, while the narrower arbitrage points to less relative weakness in China.
Table of contents
- Prices
- Global
- Europe
- China.
- India
- North America
-
Russia
- Concentrate market
- Mines news
- Corporate activity
- Smelter news
Tables and charts
This report includes 17 images and tables including:
- Lead Back to price level at end of Q1
- Open Interest surges on SHFE Pb Contract
- Refined Lead Premia and Scrap Prices
- Price forecasts and global quarterly supply/demand balances (kt)
- Indian Battery Exports ahead of last years volumes
- Quarterly Consumption
- Weak acid prices no longer appear to be an immediate threat to Chinese smelters after consolidating close to their lows in July
- A LME/SHFE arbitrage still exists but was appreciably narrower in July and so was less of a cost to China's concentrate imports
- Concentrate market TCs
- June's imports were 3% lower than the average for the previous twelve months
- Lead mine capability, market adjustment and production (kt Pb)
- Global refined lead consumption (kt Pb)
- Global lead mine production (lead in concentrate, kt Pb)
- Global refined lead production (kt Pb)
- Global primary and secondary refined lead production (kt Pb)
- Lead stocks, prices and premia
- Global lead supply and demand (kt)
What's included
This report contains:
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