Commodity Market Report

Global lead short-term outlook June 2022

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Lead plunged in value during June, losing 11% of its value, briefly crashing through the $1900/t barrier for the fist time in over a year, before recovering to finish on $1907/t. Yet this dismal showing was still the best among the key LME metals. Souring sentiment across markets, triggered by interest rate hikes, the faltering release of Chinese lockdowns, the long-term effects of the Russian war on Ukraine, plus an overall lack of belief that things would improve dragged down on prices all month. Overall exchange stocks were flat, with a small rise in LME metal counteracted by a dip in China. Refined metal premia were showing signs of retreat from historical highs with signs of slight demand easing. June’s spot TCs for low-silver concentrate in China were again lower than the previous month. Spot TCs reduced by another $10/t to $125/t CIF MCP, with RCs down to $1.20/oz.

Table of contents

  • Supply-demand balances
  • China
    • China Concentrate markets
    • Current mine developments
    • Project News
    • Corporate Activity
    • Smelter and refinery developments

Tables and charts

This report includes 21 images and tables including:

  • Base metals in steady decline during June, with lead the least worst performer
  • Cash to three-month price spread mostly in narrow contango as price plummets
  • Lead prices in consistent fall, despite brief softening of the dollar before more hardening
  • Investor sentiment turns to net short for the first time in 15 months
  • LME stocks remain quiet, with few movements and only the rubbish left in the warehouse sheds
  • Only a small rise in stocks, but nothing to get excited about
  • SHFE stocks now at their lowest for 13 months
  • SHFE price holds up, defying LME plunge
  • Refined lead premia and scrap prices
  • Price forecasts and global quarterly supply/demand balances (kt)
  • Chinese refined lead exports pick up in May, mitigating domestic oversupply in low season
  • Global quarterly refined lead consumption (kt)
  • Concentrate market TCs
  • Low-silver lead concentrate spot TCs fall further with the reduction in the negative price arbitrage
  • Lead mine capability, market adjustment and production (kt Pb)
  • Global refined lead consumption (kt Pb)
  • Global lead mine production (lead in concentrate, kt Pb)
  • Global refined lead production (kt Pb)
  • Global primary and secondary refined lead production (kt Pb)
  • Lead stocks, prices and premia
  • Global lead supply and demand (kt)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global lead short-term outlook June 2022

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