Global lead short-term outlook June 2022 Report

Commodity Market Report 30 June 2022

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Report summary

Lead plunged in value during June, losing 11% of its value, briefly crashing through the $1900/t barrier for the fist time in over a year, before recovering to finish on $1907/t. Yet this dismal showing was still the best among the key LME metals. Souring sentiment across markets, triggered by interest rate hikes, the faltering release of Chinese lockdowns, the long-term effects of the Russian war on Ukraine, plus an overall lack of belief that things would improve dragged down on prices all month. Overall exchange stocks were flat, with a small rise in LME metal counteracted by a dip in China. Refined metal premia were showing signs of retreat from historical highs with signs of slight demand easing. June’s spot TCs for low-silver concentrate in China were again lower than the previous month. Spot TCs reduced by another $10/t to $125/t CIF MCP, with RCs down to $1.20/oz.

Supply-demand balances
China
Europe
- China Concentrate markets
- Current mine developments
- Project News
- Corporate Activity
- Smelter and refinery developments

Tables and charts

This report includes 21 images and tables including:

Base metals in steady decline during June, with lead the least worst performer
Cash to three-month price spread mostly in narrow contango as price plummets
Lead prices in consistent fall, despite brief softening of the dollar before more hardening

Investor sentiment turns to net short for the first time in 15 months
LME stocks remain quiet, with few movements and only the rubbish left in the warehouse sheds
Only a small rise in stocks, but nothing to get excited about
SHFE stocks now at their lowest for 13 months
SHFE price holds up, defying LME plunge
Refined lead premia and scrap prices
Price forecasts and global quarterly supply/demand balances (kt)
Chinese refined lead exports pick up in May, mitigating domestic oversupply in low season
Global quarterly refined lead consumption (kt)
Concentrate market TCs
Low-silver lead concentrate spot TCs fall further with the reduction in the negative price arbitrage
Lead mine capability, market adjustment and production (kt Pb)
Global refined lead consumption (kt Pb)
Global lead mine production (lead in concentrate, kt Pb)
Global refined lead production (kt Pb)
Global primary and secondary refined lead production (kt Pb)
Lead stocks, prices and premia
Global lead supply and demand (kt)