Global lead short-term outlook March 2023 Report

Commodity Market Report 31 March 2023

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Report summary

Lead has demonstrated reasonable resilience during March, ending the month up despite wider market turmoil associated with the banking sector and the release of customs data that show China remaining an exporter of refined metal so far this year. However, these exports are a symptom of a relatively weak market in China. Although PMIs have posted positive results in regions including China, China stands out in terms of weakness associated with the automotive sector. Fortunately, China's refined exports can also be viewed as a symptom of too much of the ROW's concentrate production being processed in China instead of in the ROW. This could change. Crucially, mine production has not reached the point that refined production is able to decisively exceed the needs of consumers. Lead prices are therefore remaining supported.

Market Developments
- Global
North America
China
Europe
- Concentrate market
- Mines news
- Project development
- Smelter news

Tables and charts

This report includes 20 images and tables including:

Lead loses all Q4 2022 gains in Q1 2023
Cash to three months backwardation flared out in the second half of March

China's exports were destined for multiple destinations in December-January
Refined Lead Premia and Scrap Prices
Price forecasts and global quarterly supply/demand balances (kt)
Battery electric vehicle share of Chinese New Energy Vehicle market
Quarterly Consumption
Surge in lead concentrate volumes lifts overall imports to record levels in recent months
Spot TCs have been slow to lift despite a persistent LME/SHE arbitrage that widened a little in March
Concentrate market TCs
Sulphuric acid prices in China have been relatively stable at low levels since September
Lead mine capability, market adjustment and production (kt Pb)
Global refined lead consumption (kt Pb)
Global lead mine production (lead in concentrate, kt Pb)
Global refined lead production (kt Pb)
Global primary and secondary refined lead production (kt Pb)
Lead stocks, prices and premia
Global lead supply and demand (kt)