Global lead short-term outlook November 2018 Report

Commodity Market Report 30 November 2018

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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below

Report summary

A less turbulent month for lead ended with the price finishing where it started, at $1933/t. It did little other than track the dollar rate throughout November, except to briefly break free on supply worries after potential production cuts at Nyrstar's key Port Pirie smelter. LME lead stocks fell continuously, with no new deliveries into warehouses, reaching their lowest since 2009. Improved mine production offers the hope to smelters of improved TCs for next year with adequate capacity to treat the additional volume.

Executive summary
- Lead key forecasts
Supply-demand balances
- Refined lead premia and scrap prices
- Price forecasts and global quarterly supply/demand balances (kt)
Demand
- China
- US
- Canada
- Europe
- Africa
  - Global quarterly refined lead consumption (kt)
Supply
- Raw materials market
  - Additions to Chinese import have recently far outweighed losses
  - Concentrate market TCs
- Mine production news
  - Lead mine capability, market adjustment and production (kt Pb)

Tables and charts

This report includes 19 images and tables including:

Less price fluctuation in LME lead price in November, prices returns to its starting value
Lead price follows the dollar rate like an obedient puppy, rarely breaking away and never for long
Steady contango as supply fears wane among traders – or are misunderstood and ignored

Far forward price spreads turn from slight backwardation to pronounced contango
Tonnage continues to reduce despite much lower cancelled warrant total
Steady trickle of lead leaving warehouses, with no deliveries onto stocks in November
Executive summary: Table 1
Supply-demand balances: Table 1
Supply-demand balances: Table 2
Demand: Table 1
Supply: Image 1
Supply: Table 1
Supply: Table 2
Supply: Table 3
Supply: Table 4
Supply: Table 5
Supply: Table 6
Supply: Table 7
Supply: Table 8