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Commodity Market Report

Global lead short-term outlook November 2022

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Continued low spot TCs suggest that smelter capacity has not yet become a bottleneck for supply in the refined market, with lead prices instead being driven higher in November along with other metals on the back of macro-economic developments. While rising infections at operations have recently led to automakers in China to cut production, there are now renewed hopes of a less disruptive zero-Covid policy in the country. This will help global consumption growth to accelerate to 3.4% in 2023, up from just 1.2% this year. This should be met by supply, which will in part be boosted by mine production which will grow once more after a flat performance in 2022. Smelter capacity is sufficient to process the extra concentrate but it will need to restore utilisation rates after this year's dip.

Table of contents

Tables and charts

This report includes 17 images and tables including:

  • Investor buying lifts price and open interest
  • Tightness in spread eases
  • Exchange stocks continue to slip lower
  • Refined lead premia and scrap prices
  • Price forecasts and global quarterly supply/demand balances (kt)
  • India remains the dominant destination for Chinese batteries
  • Quarterly consumption
  • The arbitrage was again in negative territory during October
  • Concentrate market TCs
  • China's concentrate imports have climbed with low-silver tonnages being needed to blend with complex qualities
  • Lead mine capability, market adjustment and production (kt Pb)
  • Global refined lead consumption (kt Pb)
  • Global lead mine production (lead in concentrate, kt Pb)
  • Global refined lead production (kt Pb)
  • Global primary and secondary refined lead production (kt Pb)
  • Lead stocks, prices and premia
  • Global lead supply and demand (kt)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global lead short-term outlook November 2022

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