Global lead short-term outlook October 2018 Report

Commodity Market Report 31 October 2018

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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below

Report summary

Lead appeared unable to free itself of negative sentiment and dropped 5% of value over the month after some sharp price fluctuations. This was despite LME stocks hitting a 10-year low and portents of potential acute supply tightness. A 20 kt reversion of stocks from cancelled to live warrants seemed to give markets sufficient excuse to knock down price still further, even as total stocks continued to fall. Mine production growth in Q3 disappointed with several producer falling short of expectations and keeping the concentrate market tight - but not enough to push annual contract TCs sharply higher.

Executive summary
- Lead key forecasts
Supply-demand balances
- Refined lead premia and scrap prices
- Price forecasts and global quarterly supply/demand balances (kt)
Demand
- Europe
- China
- India
- Japan
Supply
- Raw materials market
  - Concentrate market TCs
- Mine production news

Tables and charts

This report includes the following images and tables:

High price variance throughout the month, but lead ends October joint bottom of the pack
Lead price mostly tracks the dollar rate but briefly breaks free on surplus worries
Steady outflow from LME warehouses partially countered by inward deliveries