Global lead short-term outlook October 2018 Report

Commodity Market Report 31 October 2018

Get this report

$5,000

You can pay by card or invoice

Share link

First name
Last name
Job Title
Company
Email
Telephone

Country

Message

Consent

Please keep me informed about Wood Mackenzie products, services and events.

Submit Category

For details on how your data is used and stored, see our Privacy Notice.

- FAQs about online orders
- Find out more about subscriptions

Report summary

Lead appeared unable to free itself of negative sentiment and dropped 5% of value over the month after some sharp price fluctuations. This was despite LME stocks hitting a 10-year low and portents of potential acute supply tightness. A 20 kt reversion of stocks from cancelled to live warrants seemed to give markets sufficient excuse to knock down price still further, even as total stocks continued to fall. Mine production growth in Q3 disappointed with several producer falling short of expectations and keeping the concentrate market tight - but not enough to push annual contract TCs sharply higher.

Executive summary
- Lead key forecasts
Supply-demand balances
- Refined lead premia and scrap prices
- Price forecasts and global quarterly supply/demand balances (kt)
Demand
- Europe
- China
- India
- Japan
Supply
- Raw materials market
  - Concentrate market TCs
- Mine production news

Tables and charts

This report includes 23 images and tables including:

High price variance throughout the month, but lead ends October joint bottom of the pack
Lead price mostly tracks the dollar rate but briefly breaks free on surplus worries
Steady outflow from LME warehouses partially countered by inward deliveries

Brief backwardation during price spike before contango re-established
Total stocks hit decade low but re-warranting jumps up live stocks by 20 kt
LME lead stocks in historical context
SHFE lead stocks in historical context
Executive summary: Table 1
Supply-demand balances: Table 1
Korean Customs data shows Japan scrap imports fall sharply
Iranian lead exports to India sharply down after currency collapse in April
Supply-demand balances: Table 2
Japanese refined lead exports leap after improved scrap supply and weaker domestic demand
Global quarterly refined lead consumption (kt)
Fall in China's year-to-date lead concentrate moderates significantly as a result of strong increase in September
Lead mine capability, market adjustment and production (kt Pb)
Supply: Table 3
Supply: Table 4
Supply: Table 5
Supply: Table 6
Supply: Table 7
Supply: Table 8
Supply: Table 1