Commodity Market Report
Global lead short-term outlook October 2022
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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
Despite European energy prices being well below their third-quarter peaks, threats of renewed smelter disruption continue due to the on-going nature of the continent's withdrawal of its reliance on Russia. This has led to calls for a substantial increase in metal premia for 2023, and contributed to LME price volatility during October by helping it recover in between bouts of wider weak market sentiment. Smelter disruption has not been sufficient to weaken the spot market for concentrate, which has instead remained tight as a result of mine disruption and strong demand from Chinese smelters. Annual contract TCs in 2023 are not expected to change much despite planned mine additions.
Table of contents
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Supply-demand balances
- Europe
- Concentrate market
- Current mine developments
- Corporate Activity
- Smelter and refinery developments
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
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The Bloomberg Commodity Index includes lead for the first timeBackwardation flares amid smelter worriesSurge in cancelled warrants may herald a further drawdown of LME stocks
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A widening of the arbitrage may encourage a pick up in Chinese refined exportsRefined lead premia and scrap pricesPrice forecasts and global quarterly supply/demand balances (kt)Quarterly consumptionThe arbitrage was again in negative territory during OctoberConcentrate market TCsChina's sulphuric acid prices today are not helping to compensate for low spot TCs as they were in 2021Lead mine capability, market adjustment and production (kt Pb)Global refined lead consumption (kt Pb)
- 5 more item(s)...
What's included
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