Global lead short-term outlook October 2022 Report

Commodity Market Report 31 October 2022

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Report summary

Despite European energy prices being well below their third-quarter peaks, threats of renewed smelter disruption continue due to the on-going nature of the continent's withdrawal of its reliance on Russia. This has led to calls for a substantial increase in metal premia for 2023, and contributed to LME price volatility during October by helping it recover in between bouts of wider weak market sentiment. Smelter disruption has not been sufficient to weaken the spot market for concentrate, which has instead remained tight as a result of mine disruption and strong demand from Chinese smelters. Annual contract TCs in 2023 are not expected to change much despite planned mine additions.

Supply-demand balances
- Europe
- Concentrate market
- Current mine developments
- Corporate Activity
- Smelter and refinery developments

Tables and charts

This report includes 17 images and tables including:

The Bloomberg Commodity Index includes lead for the first time
Backwardation flares amid smelter worries
Surge in cancelled warrants may herald a further drawdown of LME stocks

A widening of the arbitrage may encourage a pick up in Chinese refined exports
Refined lead premia and scrap prices
Price forecasts and global quarterly supply/demand balances (kt)
Quarterly consumption
The arbitrage was again in negative territory during October
Concentrate market TCs
China's sulphuric acid prices today are not helping to compensate for low spot TCs as they were in 2021
Lead mine capability, market adjustment and production (kt Pb)
Global refined lead consumption (kt Pb)
Global lead mine production (lead in concentrate, kt Pb)
Global refined lead production (kt Pb)
Global primary and secondary refined lead production (kt Pb)
Lead stocks, prices and premia
Global lead supply and demand (kt)