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Commodity Market Report 24 March 2022

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Report summary

The Russian war on Ukraine will have lasting impact on the global economic situation, filtering through to lead markets in an, as yet, unpredictable way, compounding the effects of the coronavirus pandemic that continues to influence markets and will shape the industry for years to come. Recnetly, supply has been more severely impacted than demand and mine production still struggles to regain momentum. Demand, on the other hand, has recovered strongly and already exceeded pre-pandemic consumption last year, with further growth in 2022. The key driver for this has been replacement automotive demand, but other sectors are also recovering, although auto OEM will struggle with semiconductor shortages into next year at least. Secondary supply growth will exceed primary as the glut of scrap continues to be consumed for recycling. Steady but unspectacular demand growth and building output from secondary will tip the market into a period of sustained refined metal surpluses.

Medium-term forecasts
Long-term prices
Risks to the forecasts
- Short term – upside
- Short term – downside
- Long term – upside
- Long term – downside
Overview
Changes since last quarter
China
Asia ex-China
- India
North America
- US
- Mexico
Europe
Latin America
Rest of World
- Lead:zinc ratio falling from new mines
- Mine projects
- Strategic planning outlook - Long term supply considerations
- Geopolitical landscape
- Environmental challenges
- Mining and mineral processing technology
Regional smelter and refinery production capability
- Africa
- Asia
- Europe
- Latin America
- Middle East
- North America
- Oceania
- Russia and the Caspian

Tables and charts

This report includes 25 images and tables including:

Table: Price forecasts and refined market balances
Chart: Concentrate and metal supply-demand balance and price forecast
Chart: Concentrate and refined lead stocks

Chart: Medium-term regional demand growth
Chart: Total stocks and long-term prices
Chart: Regional refined lead consumption growth
Chart: China, India plus rest of Asia are the main growth drivers for refined lead
Chart: China’s proportion of total demand stabilises as its lead market matures
Table: Regional refined lead consumption (kt Pb)
Table: Regional consumption changes since last quarter
Table: Global lead mine production capability and market adjustments
Chart: Current mine production capability is expected to fall from 2024
Table: Global refined lead production capability
Chart: High case (Scenario A) and low case (Scenario B) price evolution models
Table: Analysis of the lead:zinc mine production ratio
Chart: New mined lead production required from 2026
Table: African refined lead production
Table: Asian refined lead production
Table: European refined lead production
Table: Latin American refined lead production
Table: Middle East refined lead production
Table: North American refined lead production
Table: Oceania refined lead production
Table: Russia and the Caspian refined lead production