Commodity Market Report

Global lead strategic planning outlook - Q1 2022

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The Russian war on Ukraine will have lasting impact on the global economic situation, filtering through to lead markets in an, as yet, unpredictable way, compounding the effects of the coronavirus pandemic that continues to influence markets and will shape the industry for years to come. Recnetly, supply has been more severely impacted than demand and mine production still struggles to regain momentum. Demand, on the other hand, has recovered strongly and already exceeded pre-pandemic consumption last year, with further growth in 2022. The key driver for this has been replacement automotive demand, but other sectors are also recovering, although auto OEM will struggle with semiconductor shortages into next year at least. Secondary supply growth will exceed primary as the glut of scrap continues to be consumed for recycling. Steady but unspectacular demand growth and building output from secondary will tip the market into a period of sustained refined metal surpluses.

Table of contents

  • Medium-term forecasts
  • Long-term prices
    • Short term – upside
    • Short term – downside
    • Long term – upside
    • Long term – downside
  • Overview
  • Changes since last quarter
  • China
    • India
    • US
    • Mexico
  • Europe
  • Latin America
    • Lead:zinc ratio falling from new mines
    • Mine projects
    • Strategic planning outlook - Long term supply considerations
    • Geopolitical landscape
    • Environmental challenges
    • Mining and mineral processing technology
    • Africa
    • Asia
    • Europe
    • Latin America
    • Middle East
    • North America
    • Oceania
    • Russia and the Caspian

Tables and charts

This report includes 25 images and tables including:

  • Table: Price forecasts and refined market balances
  • Chart: Concentrate and metal supply-demand balance and price forecast
  • Chart: Concentrate and refined lead stocks
  • Chart: Medium-term regional demand growth
  • Chart: Total stocks and long-term prices
  • Chart: Regional refined lead consumption growth
  • Chart: China, India plus rest of Asia are the main growth drivers for refined lead
  • Chart: China’s proportion of total demand stabilises as its lead market matures
  • Table: Regional refined lead consumption (kt Pb)
  • Table: Regional consumption changes since last quarter
  • Table: Global lead mine production capability and market adjustments
  • Chart: Current mine production capability is expected to fall from 2024
  • Table: Global refined lead production capability
  • Chart: High case (Scenario A) and low case (Scenario B) price evolution models
  • Table: Analysis of the lead:zinc mine production ratio
  • Chart: New mined lead production required from 2026
  • Table: African refined lead production
  • Table: Asian refined lead production
  • Table: European refined lead production
  • Table: Latin American refined lead production
  • Table: Middle East refined lead production
  • Table: North American refined lead production
  • Table: Oceania refined lead production
  • Table: Russia and the Caspian refined lead production

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global lead strategic planning outlook - Q1 2022

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