Commodity Market Report

Global lead strategic planning outlook - Q1 2024

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Six years after ICEV sales peaked, global consumption has continued to set new highs and is forecast to rise by a CAGR of 1.0% in the period 2023-2034. In terms of lead use in vehicles, this reflects three broad themes. Firstly, OE SLIs in hybrids are forecast to offset 84% of the decline associated with ICEVs. Secondly, there is an existing parc of vehicles with SLIs that require replacements and new sales add to this parc. Lead use in all SLIs for vehicles is not forecast to peak until 2030 and be up by a CAGR of 0.5% in 2023-2034. Finally, lead is still popular in the expanding market for auxiliary batteries in fully electric vehicles. Primary smelter output will have to rise by a CAGR of just 0.4% in the period 2023-2034, with the balance of the growth in output needed to meet the rise in consumption being met by the secondary supply. Alongside, mine production needs to lift by a CAGR of just 0.3% and this will be met by developments such as the new Hermosa project.

Table of contents

Tables and charts

This report includes 27 images and tables including:

  • Table: Price forecasts and refined market balances
  • Chart: Concentrate and metal supply-demand balance and price forecast
  • Chart: Concentrate and refined lead stocks
  • Chart: Total stocks and long-term prices
  • Chart: Regional refined lead consumption growth
  • Table: Regional refined lead consumption (kt Pb)
  • Chart: SLI OE decline compensated by continuing replacement growth in short term
  • Chart: SLI Growth in auxilliary battery demand substitutes lost SLI demand
  • Chart: SLI Hybrids use of SLI batterys partially substitutes for conventional ICE demand
  • Chart: China and India are the main growth drivers for refined lead
  • Chart: China’s proportion of total demand stabilises as its lead market matures
  • TableEuropean refined lead consumption (kt Pb)
  • Chart: Regional consumption changes since last qtr.
  • Table: Global lead mine production capability and market adjustments
  • Chart: Current mine production capability is expected to peak in 2025 and fall decisively after 2030
  • Table: Global refined lead production capability
  • Table: African refined lead production
  • Table: Analysis of the lead:zinc mine production ratio
  • Chart: New mined lead production required in the 2030s
  • Table: Asian refined lead production
  • Table: European refined lead production
  • Table: Latin American refined lead production
  • Table: Middle East refined lead production
  • Table: North American refined lead production
  • Table: Oceania refined lead production
  • Table: Russia and the Caspian refined lead production

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global lead strategic planning outlook - Q1 2024

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