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Commodity Market Report 29 March 2024

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Report summary

Six years after ICEV sales peaked, global consumption has continued to set new highs and is forecast to rise by a CAGR of 1.0% in the period 2023-2034. In terms of lead use in vehicles, this reflects three broad themes. Firstly, OE SLIs in hybrids are forecast to offset 84% of the decline associated with ICEVs. Secondly, there is an existing parc of vehicles with SLIs that require replacements and new sales add to this parc. Lead use in all SLIs for vehicles is not forecast to peak until 2030 and be up by a CAGR of 0.5% in 2023-2034. Finally, lead is still popular in the expanding market for auxiliary batteries in fully electric vehicles. Primary smelter output will have to rise by a CAGR of just 0.4% in the period 2023-2034, with the balance of the growth in output needed to meet the rise in consumption being met by the secondary supply. Alongside, mine production needs to lift by a CAGR of just 0.3% and this will be met by developments such as the new Hermosa project.

Medium-term forecasts
Long-term prices
Overview
Medium-term Outlook
Asia
China
India
Europe
North America
USA
Mexico
Latin America
Rest of World
Changes to forecast lead consumption since previous quarter
- Lead:zinc ratio falling from new mines
- Mine projects
- Strategic planning outlook - Long term supply considerations
- Geopolitical landscape
- Environmental challenges
- Mining and mineral processing technology
Regional smelter and refinery production capability
- Asia
- Europe
- Latin America
- Middle East
- North America
- Oceania
- Russia and the Caspian

Tables and charts

This report includes 27 images and tables including:

Table: Price forecasts and refined market balances
Chart: Concentrate and metal supply-demand balance and price forecast
Chart: Concentrate and refined lead stocks

Chart: Total stocks and long-term prices
Chart: Regional refined lead consumption growth
Table: Regional refined lead consumption (kt Pb)
Chart: SLI OE decline compensated by continuing replacement growth in short term
Chart: SLI Growth in auxilliary battery demand substitutes lost SLI demand
Chart: SLI Hybrids use of SLI batterys partially substitutes for conventional ICE demand
Chart: China and India are the main growth drivers for refined lead
Chart: China’s proportion of total demand stabilises as its lead market matures
TableEuropean refined lead consumption (kt Pb)
Chart: Regional consumption changes since last qtr.
Table: Global lead mine production capability and market adjustments
Chart: Current mine production capability is expected to peak in 2025 and fall decisively after 2030
Table: Global refined lead production capability
Table: African refined lead production
Table: Analysis of the lead:zinc mine production ratio
Chart: New mined lead production required in the 2030s
Table: Asian refined lead production
Table: European refined lead production
Table: Latin American refined lead production
Table: Middle East refined lead production
Table: North American refined lead production
Table: Oceania refined lead production
Table: Russia and the Caspian refined lead production