Commodity Market Report

Global noble steel alloys strategic planning outlook - Q1 2023

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Noble alloys witnessed recent price spikes in the first quarter of 2023, driven mainly by tight market supply, China’s reopening and renewed buying interest from China. Crude steel and crude stainless steel production growth is expected to accelerate in 2023, which will support noble alloys demand in 2023 and 2024. The global crude steel production is expected to increase at a CAGR 0.5% between 2023 and 2050. Crude steel production growth is expected to shift from China to the rest of the world as Chinese production is expected to decline going forward. Consumption of noble alloys is forecast to grow more quickly than crude steel production, thanks to rising intensities of noble alloys within steel.

Table of contents

  • Prices: short-term market-driven convergence, long-term divergence
  • Demand: China-dependent with decarbonisation growth potential
  • Supply: differing trajectories across noble alloys
  • Molybdenum
    • Risks to the base case
    • Background
    • Latest outlook
    • Base case price forecast
    • Key risks to the base case
    • Background
    • Latest outlook
    • Base case price forecast
  • Carbon steel production trends
  • Stainless steel production trends
    • Use of molybdenum in stainless steel
    • Use of molybdenum in other applications
    • Ferroniobium demand
    • Use of vanadium in steel
    • Use of vanadium in VRBs and other applications
    • Substitution between vanadium and niobium
  • 3 more item(s)...

Tables and charts

This report includes the following images and tables:

  • Molybdenum demand and finished supply (kt Mo)
  • China net imports of molybdenum concentrate and ferromolybdenum (kt Mo)
  • Molybdenum prices: recent trends
  • Molybdenum prices: future trends
  • FeMo conversion premiums
  • Forecast crude steel production
  • Forecast stainless steel production
  • Finished molybdenum demand (kt Mo)
  • Crude steel production (ex-stainless steel) and contained finished molybdenum
  • Vehicle sales by engine type
  • Forecast demand for niobium products by application
  • Consumption of vanadium by application
  • 35 more item(s)...

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global noble steel alloys strategic planning outlook - Q1 2023

    PDF 1.26 MB