Commodity Market Report

Global noble steel alloys strategic planning outlook - Q1 2023

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Noble alloys witnessed recent price spikes in the first quarter of 2023, driven mainly by tight market supply, China’s reopening and renewed buying interest from China. Crude steel and crude stainless steel production growth is expected to accelerate in 2023, which will support noble alloys demand in 2023 and 2024. The global crude steel production is expected to increase at a CAGR 0.5% between 2023 and 2050. Crude steel production growth is expected to shift from China to the rest of the world as Chinese production is expected to decline going forward. Consumption of noble alloys is forecast to grow more quickly than crude steel production, thanks to rising intensities of noble alloys within steel.

Table of contents

  • Prices: short-term market-driven convergence, long-term divergence
  • Demand: China-dependent with decarbonisation growth potential
  • Supply: differing trajectories across noble alloys
  • Molybdenum
    • Risks to the base case
    • Background
    • Latest outlook
    • Base case price forecast
    • Key risks to the base case
    • Background
    • Latest outlook
    • Base case price forecast
  • Carbon steel production trends
  • Stainless steel production trends
    • Use of molybdenum in stainless steel
    • Use of molybdenum in other applications
    • Ferroniobium demand
    • Use of vanadium in steel
    • Use of vanadium in VRBs and other applications
    • Substitution between vanadium and niobium
  • Molybdenum
  • Niobium
    • Vanadium feedstock
    • Ferrovanadium and vanadium nitride

Tables and charts

This report includes 47 images and tables including:

  • Molybdenum demand and finished supply (kt Mo)
  • China net imports of molybdenum concentrate and ferromolybdenum (kt Mo)
  • Molybdenum prices: recent trends
  • Molybdenum prices: future trends
  • FeMo conversion premiums
  • Forecast crude steel production
  • Forecast stainless steel production
  • Finished molybdenum demand (kt Mo)
  • Crude steel production (ex-stainless steel) and contained finished molybdenum
  • Vehicle sales by engine type
  • Forecast demand for niobium products by application
  • Consumption of vanadium by application
  • Vanadium consumption by region
  • Molybdenum mine supply by country: base case, probable and possible
  • Niobium production by country, 2023
  • Niobium global production capacity
  • Niobium production costs, C1
  • World niobium intensity
  • Niobium market balance
  • Forecast demand for niobium from HSLA and non-HSLA
  • Niobium cost curve
  • Long-term price forecast ferroniobium 66% Nb Rotterdam
  • Vanadium demand breakdown, steel vs non-steel
  • Vanadium market balance
  • Vanadium pentoxide 98%, Rotterdam and ferrovanadium 78-82% V, Rotterdam price trend
  • Vanadium pentoxide and ferrovanadium long-term price forecasts
  • Crude stainless steel production and contained finished molybdenum
  • Civilian aircraft deliveries from select manufacturers (airframes)
  • Molybdenum use in non-steel applications
  • Niobium shipments by product type
  • Ferroniobium demand in Nb
  • Estimated niobium intensity by country
  • Niobium consumption in ferroniobium by region
  • China ferroniobium imports vs ferrovanadium 78-82% V Rotterdam
  • Estimated non-HSLA niobium products shipments per category (%)
  • Non-HSLA niobium demand breakdown
  • Vanadium demand from the steel sector
  • World vanadium steel intensity
  • Estimated vanadium intensity in steel by region
  • Vanadium redox battery forecasts
  • Ferrovanadium vs ferroniobium prices
  • World vanadium vs niobium intensity
  • Vanadium production by production route
  • Vanadium supply by region
  • Ferrovanadium and vanadium nitride production share by country
  • Vanadium pentoxide cost curve, 2023 (US$/lb V2O5)
  • Ferrovanadium and vanadium nitride cost curve, 2023 (US$/kg V)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global noble steel alloys strategic planning outlook - Q1 2023

    PDF 1.26 MB