Commodity Market Report

Global noble steel alloys strategic planning outlook - Q1 2024

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Noble alloy prices have stabilised since the spikes seen in 2023. The effects of optimism surrounding China’s reopening and price uplift from supply restrictions have since waned. In its place, macroeconomic uncertainty has cast a shadow over key steel markets in the near term. Despite this, the long-term story for molybdenum, niobium and vanadium demand is one of growth, driven by traditional and emerging use cases.

Table of contents

  • Supply: differing trajectories across noble alloys
  • Molybdenum
    • Risks to the base case
    • Background
    • Latest outlook
    • Base case price forecast
    • Key risks to the base case
    • Background
    • Latest outlook
    • Base case price forecast
  • Molybdenum
  • Niobium
    • Vanadium feedstock
    • Ferrovanadium and vanadium nitride
  • Carbon steel production trends
  • Stainless steel production trends
    • Use of molybdenum in stainless steel
    • Use of molybdenum in other applications
    • Ferroniobium demand
    • Use of vanadium in steel
    • Use of vanadium in VRBs and other applications
    • Substitution between vanadium and niobium

Tables and charts

This report includes 44 images and tables including:

  • Molybdenum demand and finished supply (kt Mo)
  • China net imports of molybdenum concentrate and ferromolybdenum (kt Mo)
  • Molybdenum prices: recent trends
  • Molybdenum prices: future trends
  • FeMo conversion premiums
  • Molybdenum mine supply by country: base case, probable and possible
  • Niobium production by country, 2023
  • Niobium global production capacity
  • Niobium production costs, C1
  • Forecast crude steel production
  • Forecast stainless steel production
  • Finished molybdenum demand (kt Mo)
  • Crude steel production (ex-stainless steel) and contained finished molybdenum
  • Vehicle sales by engine type
  • Forecast demand for niobium products by application
  • Consumption of vanadium by application
  • Vanadium consumption by region
  • World niobium intensity
  • Niobium market balance
  • Forecast demand for niobium from HSLA and non-HSLA
  • Niobium cost curve
  • Long-term price forecast ferroniobium 66% Nb Rotterdam
  • Vanadium demand breakdown, steel vs non-steel
  • Vanadium market balance
  • Vanadium pentoxide and ferrovanadium long-term price forecasts
  • Vanadium production by production route
  • Vanadium supply by region
  • Ferrovanadium and vanadium nitride production share by country
  • Vanadium pentoxide cost curve, 2023 (US$/lb V2O5)
  • Ferrovanadium and vanadium nitride cost curve, 2023 (US$/kg V)
  • Crude stainless steel production and contained finished molybdenum
  • Molybdenum use in non-steel applications
  • Niobium shipments by product type
  • Ferroniobium demand in Nb
  • Estimated niobium intensity by country
  • Niobium consumption in ferroniobium by region
  • China ferroniobium imports vs ferrovanadium 78-82% V Rotterdam
  • Estimated non-HSLA niobium products shipments per category (%)
  • Non-HSLA niobium demand breakdown
  • Vanadium demand from the steel sector
  • World vanadium steel intensity
  • Estimated vanadium intensity in steel by region
  • Vanadium redox battery forecasts
  • World vanadium vs niobium intensity

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global noble steel alloys strategic planning outlook - Q1 2024

    PDF 1.37 MB