Commodity Market Report

Global rare earths short-term outlook July 2022

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27 July 2022

Global rare earths short-term outlook July 2022

Report summary

Continued uncertainty caused by Covid19-related lockdowns in the Chinese domestic market, coupled with a weakening global economic outlook has forced rare earth prices lower in July. Market sentiment in China remains cautious, with consumers of rare earth products drawing down inventories in anticipation of lower prices. Underlying demand growth in magnets remains strong, driven by energy transition-related sectors in the period to 2026. After a weak Q2 2022 performance, the recovery in Chinese automotive sales is only expected to filter through the supply chain and pressure rare earth prices in Q4 2022. Restocking and demand recovery may see an aggressive recovery in prices, though improved supply availability will reduce pressure on prices by mid-2023. Longer-term, investment in the development of regional supply chains in North America and Europe will reduce dependence on Chinese production, though China will maintain a strong influence over the global market.

Table of contents

  • Lanthanum and cerium oxide
  • Neodymium, praseodymium and Nd-Pr oxide
  • Samarium, europium and gadolinium oxide
  • Terbium and dysprosium oxide
    • Changes to GDP and industrial sector growth forecast
    • Changes to wind energy forecast
    • Potential demand growth for cerium and lanthanum in Al-Mg alloys
    • Chinese new energy vehicle sales recover
    • US passes NDAA 2023 and finances the creation of strategic stockpiles
    • Can ROW critical material strategies weaken China’s dominance?
    • Xinfeng Zuokeng mining licence approved, bolstering Chinese IAC production
    • Mkango publishes DFS for Songwe Hill rare earth project
    • GE Renewable Energy turns to Arafura to de-risk magnet supply chain
    • Shenghe revises offtake contract with MP Materials
    • Water supply disrupts production at Lynas’ Malaysia plant

Tables and charts

This report includes 22 images and tables including:

  • Historical lanthanum and cerium oxide prices
  • Forecast lanthanum and cerium oxide prices
  • Neodymium, praseodymium and Nd-Pr oxide prices
  • Forecast praseodymium, neodymium and Nd-Pr oxide prices
  • Samarium, europium and gadolinium oxide prices
  • Forecast samarium, europium and gadolinium oxide prices
  • Terbium and dysprosium oxide prices
  • Forecast terbium and dysprosium oxide prices
  • Holmium, erbium1, ytterbium, yttrium and lutetium oxide prices
  • Forecast ytterbium, erbium and yttrium oxide prices
  • Forecast holmium and lutetium oxide prices
  • Rare earth demand by application
  • Rare earth demand by element
  • Regional changes to offshore wind forecast from Q1 2022 forecast
  • Regional changes to onshore wind forecast from Q1 2022 forecast
  • Repowering forecast by type
  • Comparison of June and July forecast NdFeB magnet demand in Wind applications
  • Global mined supply by region
  • Global refined and recycled supply
  • Chinese exports of rare earth products
  • Imports of RE compounds (US, Japan, EU27)
  • Imports of RE metal (US, Japan, EU27)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global rare earths short-term outlook July 2022

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