Global rare earths strategic planning outlook Q1 2023 Report

Commodity Market Report 03 April 2023

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Report summary

Despite the rare earths suite containing 16 elements, the global energy transition to a lower-carbon future has raised the importance of new energy applications, fuelling rare earth demand. Neodymium will remain the primary focal point of the industry as demand from magnet applications grows. Prices for key magnet rare earths began the year strongly, continuing the upward momentum from Q4 2022. However, prices then declined from the beginning of February due to weaker than expected demand, uncertainty surrounding the economic situation in China and delays to announcing production quotas. Wood Mackenzie expects prices to gradually tick upwards during Q2 and Q3 as new purchasing agreements are established with magnet manufacturers. Towards the end of the year and into 2024, the seasonal influence around inventory building ahead of the Spring Festival closures will facilitate further price rises.

Market outlook and prices
- Most rare earth elements to remain oversupplied
- Neodymium supply defines the rare earth market
- Diverging outlooks for other magnet rare earths
- Macroeconomic outlook
- Quota announcement expected to help stabilise prices
- Forecast prices for key magnet rare earths remain supported by strong demand growth
- Heavy rare earth prices to decline longer term as supply availability improves
Demand
- Permanent magnet applications will increase their share of rare earth demand
- Wind energy generation to play key role in magnet demand
- Outlook for catalyst demand impacted by falling ICE vehicle sales and transition to renewable energy generation
Supply
- Mine supply to become increasingly diversified
- Monazite mineral sands
- Refined supply to remain China-centred
- Secondary supply to grow in importance
Market balance
- Lanthanum and cerium
- Neodymium
- Praseodymium
- Samarium, europium and gadolinium (SEG)
- Terbium and dysprosium
- Other heavy rare earths
Prices
- Lanthanum and cerium oxides
- Risks to the base case
- Neodymium, praseodymium and Nd-Pr oxides
- Risks to the base case
- Samarium, europium and gadolinium oxide
- Risks to the base case
- Terbium and dysprosium
- Risks to the base case
- Other heavy rare earths
- Risks to the base case
Overview
Changes since Q4 2022
Magnet Applications
- Automotive and transport applications
- Wind energy generation
- Computing, electronics and audio
- Magnet demand by element
Catalysts
Polishing powders
Batteries
Glass
Metallurgical
Minor applications
Mine supply
- Mine production capability
- Alternative sources of rare earths
- Monazite mineral sands
- Apatite
- Other phosphates
- Regional supply trends
- China
- North America
- Asia Pacific (ex-China)
- Europe
- Africa and the Middle East
- Latin America
Refined supply
- Refined production capability
- Regional supply trends
- China
- North America
- Asia Pacific (ex-China)
- Europe
- Africa and the Middle East
- Latin America
Recycled supply
- Recycling production capability
- Regional supply trends
- China
- North America
- Asia Pacific (ex-China)
- Europe
- Africa and the Middle East
- Latin America