The current slowdown will be a drawn-out affair and over the next few years, the steel industry will have to learn to celebrate small and infrequent victories. The one material victory for steelmakers in Q1 has been a stronger than expected increase in steel prices. Having in most cases fallen below 2009-lows during the turn of the year, steel prices have since regained between 1% and 23%. However, we do not expect to see any further sustainable improvement till after 2018. Weak demand, persistent overcapacity and low raw material prices will continue to limit the possible recovery in prices.
As the year progresses so an increasing number of dreams for a speedy recovery for global steel consumption will be shattered. Overall as part of this update, we have revised down our global long-term steel demand forecast by a further 4.8% to 1,820 million tonnes in 2035. In line with this crude steel production has also been revised down by 4.7% to 1,955 million tonnes.
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Global steel long-term outlook Q1 2016 PDF - 1.24 MB 49 Pages, 4 Tables, 47 Figures
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Commodity market report | Mar 2016
Global steel long-term outlook Q1 2016
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