Commodity Market Report
Global steel long-term outlook Q1 2020
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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
After a global contraction this year, our working assumption is for steel demand growth to resume from 2021. Peak steel demand in China has been pushed back a year to 2021. Thereafter, India will be the source of a large portion of global growth alongside developing Southeast Asian nations. Elsewhere in the world there is little demand growth potential. As environmental concerns grow, how will steelmaking technology evolve? In China, scrap based EAF production will take an increasing share of the market. India's demand growth will be supplied by additional integrated BF-BOF facilities. Europe is leading the way with emissions free steel production technology. The Middle East and North Africa has scope to raise DRI production. The Global steel market long-term outlook provides detailed supply and demand analysis and price forecasts for the steel market out to 2040.
Table of contents
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Executive Summary
- Our view for 2020 is risked – we forecast falls in steel demand globally this year.
- Long-term price forecast
- Steelmakers are in for a rough ride this year. But what awaits those that survive?
- China – peak steel demand pushed back to 2021
- Can India be the new engine of global growth?
- Other contributors to global growth – big rates, but smaller tonnages
- Limited demand growth potential elsewhere
- Supply
- 3 more item(s)...
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China
- Long-term: China’s aging population and slowing rate of urbanisation tempers steel demand
- Long-term: despite lightweighting, automotive stock still has much room to grow
- Medium-term: infrastructure will prevent steel demand from falling off the cliff
- Short-term: steel demand will fall 2.2% in 2020 before it peaks again in 2021
- Short-term: foreign demand declines will reduce Chinese exports of steel and steel containing goods
- Steel supply: moderate drop in crude steel production
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India
- Demand
- Infrastructure sector: a key focus area
- Housing sector demand growing despite the sluggish economy
- Automotive will grow better in the long term, with a steady outlook for the medium term
- Supply
- Japan
- South Korea
- Indonesia and Vietnam
- Rest of Southeast Asia
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EU and the UK
- Automotive
- Construction
- European steelmaking is evolving, slowly, to bring down emissions
- Falling production is bringing down emissions in the near term
- Steelmakers will have to act to limit future emissions
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Turkey
- Steel demand is fragile but should not contract further
- Supported by exports, Turkish production has fared better
- Middle East
- North Africa
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Egypt
- Demand outlook is fragile
- Egyptian steel production will recover quicker than demand
- DRI production will increase in Egypt
- 7 more item(s)...
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
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Middle East steel demand by countryMiddle East steel demand by sector10% of global semis exports go to North Africa but exporting to the region will become increasingly difficult...
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with the region potentially adding as much as 8Mtpa of capacityChina's aged population is a risk to steel demandUrbanised population by decadeThe development of automobile industry in major economiesInfrastructure will be the only growing steel demand sector in 2020Indian bank credit growthIndian automotive growthIndian automotive steel demand growth forecastIndian steel production and trade forecast
- 10 more item(s)...
What's included
This report contains:
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