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Commodity Market Report

Global Steel Strategic Planning Outlook – Q1 2022

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31 March 2022

Global Steel Strategic Planning Outlook – Q1 2022

Report summary

The steel industry entered 2022 amid uncertainty due to the resurgence of Covid cases and slowing construction investments. It is now reeling under the ambiguity of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Chinese steel demand will flatline in 2022. However, government spending will support demand during the year. Global growth to piggyback on strong demand momentum in India and Southeast Asia. The steel supply mix is in for an overhaul as decarbonisation initiatives intensify. We have incorporated carbon emission outlook, hydrogen-based steel production and carbon offset measures such as CCUS demand in our report. Our strategic planning outlook answers 1) How will Chinese demand and production fare? What will be the impact on global market dynamics? 2) Impact of decarbonisation on steel supply landscape and carbon emission outlook 3) How will prices fare amid rising uncertainties? The global steel strategic planning outlook provides demand-supply analysis and price forecasts out to 2050.

Table of contents

    • Emerging economies like India and Southeast Asia to keep demand afloat in 2022
    • Demand growth to slow over the longer term
    • Chinese output to plateau in 2022, India to race ahead
    • India and Southeast Asia to lead in the long-term, Chinese output to plummet
    • Evolving decarbonisation initiatives to alter the steelmaking landscape
    • The unravelling of events amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict poses the biggest near-term risk to our forecast
    • Demand
    • Steel demand in 2021 declined by 3% due to weak construction demand
    • Near and medium-term: Consumption to remain range-bound in 2022; Construction sector to drag demand down thereafter
    • Covid poses risks to our 2022 estimates
    • Long-term demand: slowing urbanisation and decline in population to reduce steel demand
    • Supply
    • Crude steel production to remain stable in 2022
    • Strong production in December restricted 2021 production decline to 3% year-on-year
    • Production to remain stable in 2022
    • Medium term: EAF penetration to slow down due to delay in peak carbon deadline
    • Demand
    • Steel demand to rise 10% year-on-year but remain below pre-pandemic levels
    • Medium-term demand to be driven by construction sector
    • Long-term demand will be driven by low urbanisation and steel penetration
    • Supply
    • Indian capacity to surge as steelmakers add over 90 Mt in the next decade
    • India to produce hydrogen steel in the 2030s, but BOF production to remain dominant
    • Steel demand recovers from COVID jolt. Near term outlook to stay muted.
    • Long-term prospects remain weak
    • Capacity restructuring seems inevitable
    • Supply to be controlled via restructuring measures
    • South Korean demand to recoup pandemic losses in 2021; outperform Japan in the near term
    • Automobile and shipbuilding to lead in the medium term
    • Growth to falter over long term
    • The fight on decarbonisation
    • Steel demand to rebound 8% in 2022 after a subdued performance in 2021
    • Long-term prospects remain bullish on strong fundamentals
    • Infrastructure to be a key growth determinant
    • Housing and automotive production will support consumption
    • Rising domestic production to falter finished steel imports
    • Rise in BOF output will support hot metal; decarbonisation initiatives to accelerate post 2035
    • Automotive
    • Construction
    • Trade and the macro-economy
    • European steelmakers truly in the steel decarbonization race
    • European steelmaking strategies
    • DRI production
    • Shift away from blast furnaces accelerates in the late 2030s
    • Steel demand improved further in 2021
    • Supported by exports, Turkish production has fared well
    • Russian automotive industry – growing but from a low base
    • National projects are driving construction activity
    • Steel production in Russia will outpace demand
    • Ukrainian steel production revised lower in an uncertain environment
    • Central Asian countries have strong growth prospects
    • Steel demand declined in 2021, expected to rebound in 2022.
    • Iran to exceed 55Mt steel capacity target by 2025, continue to lead in long term
    • Power disruptions drag steel demand in 2021; growth trajectory to slow
    • Supply chain challenges to falter production in near term
    • Investments in construction to support steel consumption
  • North Africa
    • Demand rebounds post lifting of construction ban
    • Steel production aided by import safeguards
    • Demand to remain subdued
    • Steel production to rise, deterring imports
  • MENA: Metallics Demand
  • MENA: Metallics Demand
    • Construction: on the rise while Biden’s plan last; long term remains lacklustre
    • Manufacturing: automotive’ s calvary to begin by 2030; machinery to modestly grow
    • EAF’s dominance to expand
    • Changing metallics demand: the rise of DRI
  • Mexico and Canada
    • Iron Ore
    • Coal
    • Scrap
    • Steel prices will not normalise despite lowering raw material costs
    • Steel price forecast
    • Scrap prices

Tables and charts

This report includes 69 images and tables including:

  • Demand growth by region
  • Global steel production outlook: EAF share to rise
  • Regional steel production outlook (2021-2050)
  • Japanese steel demand on a decline
  • Japan’s steel capacity to shrink 33Mt by 2050
  • South Korean steel demand to decline
  • South Korean capacity to witness a slight uptick
  • Southeast Asia: Demand outlook by country
  • Middle East: steel consumption outlook
  • North Africa: steel consumption outlook
  • Rising steel output to elevate operating rates
  • DRI production to rise 1.8% annually till 2050
  • Scrap demand to triple by 2035
  • DRI production to rise 2% annually till 2035
  • Scrap demand to triple by 2035
  • Canada's finished steel consumption
  • Mexico's Car industry and Construction sector
  • Brazil production and demand recovery
  • Global average crude steel production costs
  • Steel demand posted double-digit growth in H1 2021 before turning negative in October
  • Demand to remain rangebound in 2022; construction decline to drag on demand thereafter
  • Chinese demographics to weaken
  • Urbanisation to witness a steep fall during 2020-2025
  • Steel demand outlook (2021-2050)
  • Hydrogen steelmaking in China
  • Overall steel production by technology
  • Growth rates by sector (%)
  • Steel demand outlook (Mt)
  • Monthly crude steel production (Mt)
  • Exports remained strong in 2021
  • Capacity additions by large Indian steelmakers
  • Steel capacity and utilisation levels
  • Steel production by technology
  • Steel supply mix is in for an overhaul
  • Hydrogen-based steel production outlook
  • Crude steel production: EAF to gain prominence
  • Hydrogen-based steel production outlook
  • Emission targets
  • Key projects
  • Key infrastructure projects
  • BF-BOF capacity on a rise
  • Finished steel imports as % of demand to decline
  • Hot metal production to gain momentum
  • Hydrogen-based steel production outlook
  • European steelmaking strategies
  • Key emission reducing projects in Europe
  • Capacity surge will be led by Iran
  • EAF to remain the dominant route
  • Utilisation falls as production fails to catchup
  • Steel output to rise 2% annually till 2050
  • Utilisation levels to improve over the long term
  • Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act capital allocation and steel intensity by area
  • US demand by sector
  • US trade and production
  • Steelmaking by route
  • EAF burden mix
  • China hot rolled coil price and cost
  • Europe hot rolled coil price and cost
  • China rebar price and cost
  • Europe rebar price and cost
  • US hot rolled coil price and cost
  • US rebar price and cost
  • HRC price forecast
  • Rebar price forecast
  • Scrap price forecast
  • Metallics price forecast

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global Steel Strategic Planning Outlook – Q1 2022

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