Commodity Market Report

Global steel strategic planning outlook – Q1 2024

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Steel will witness another year of uncertainty in 2024 as macro headwinds are still at play. Continued underperformance in the Chinese property market will keep steel demand rangebound, with a downward bias in 2024. Steel demand across the developed world is expected to improve in 2024 from a low base, but we have lowered our growth forecasts for these regions, given the continued impact of monetary tightening on steel-consuming sectors, namely construction. Over the long term, China will remain a laggard. Global growth will be driven by strong demand from emerging economies like India and Southeast Asia. The steel supply mix is in for a revamp as decarbonisation initiatives intensify. The shift to low-carbon steelmaking will elevate the production share of EAF from 28% in 2022 to 49% by 2050.

Table of contents

    • Mature economies and India to drive growth in 2024; Chinese demand to remain under pressure as construction continues to decline
  • Global demand set to rise at CAGR 0.8% through 2050, driven by India and Southeast Asia
  • Global supply to echo demand, rising at 0.6% CAGR by 2050
  • Chinese production to fall in 2024; exports to drive production in India
  • As Chinese supply tails off, India and Southeast Asia to add most capacity
    • Demand
    • Steel demand in 2023 fell 3% year-on-year, dragged down by the sluggish property sector
    • Trade
    • Supply
    • Crude steel production to edge down by 1% in 2024
    • H-DRI will ramp up in the long term but BF-BOF will dominate
    • Demand
    • Steel demand rose by a solid 17% year-on-year in 2023 but will temper down this year
    • Supply
    • Steel demand in 2024 to mirror last year. Near-term outlook bearish.
    • Long-term prospects remain muted
    • Capacity restructuring seems inevitable
    • Supply to follow in demand footsteps
    • South Korean demand to outperform Japan in the near term
    • Automobile and shipbuilding to lead in the medium term
    • Growth to weaken over the long term
    • Steel consumption stayed flat in 2023; to rebound 5% in 2024
    • Long-term prospects remain bullish on solid fundamentals
    • Infrastructure to be a key growth determinant
    • Housing and automotive production will support consumption
    • Rising domestic production to falter finished steel imports
    • Rise in BOF output will support hot metal; decarbonisation initiatives to accelerate post-2035
    • Macroeconomic outlook
    • A slow path to recovery for European construction
    • Switch to electric vehicles to surpass long term auto demand
    • EU trade unaffected by Russian sanctions
    • EU steel production to gain momentum in 2024, EAF to dominate in the 2030s
    • CBAM and ETS to drive up long-term carbon prices
    • European long-term production strategies
    • Monetary pressures continue to dampen post-earthquake reconstruction efforts
    • EAF share of production will continue to dominate, reaching 80% by 2050
    • Exports to stay restricted amid rising domestic consumption
    • Turkey is well positioned to benefit from CBAM
    • DEMAND
    • Russian steel demand surged by 10% year-on-year in 2023 despite the ongoing war
    • Long term demand to remain stable
    • SUPPLY & TRADE
    • Sanctions will restrict medium-term production long term production to grow at a CAGR 1%
    • DEMAND
    • Steel demand to skyrocket until 2030 amidst the reconstruction boom
    • SUPPLY & TRADE
    • Steelmakers shift focus from exports as domestic demand takes centre stage
    • Middle East to emerge as a key H-DRI producing hub
    • Demand
    • Supply
    • Steel demand to be policy-driven in the near term, led by the Inflation Reduction Act
    • Long-term construction growth to remain subdued
    • Steel demand from autos to flatline in the long term
    • EAF’s dominance to expand to nearly 80% by 2050
    • Hydrogen-based DRI to account for a third of total DRI production
  • Mexico and Canada
    • Iron Ore
    • Coal
    • Steel prices continue to stabilise in 2023
    • Long term steel prices to track the raw material price trend
    • Steel price forecast
    • Scrap prices

Tables and charts

This report includes 71 images and tables including:

  • Global steel production outlook: EAF% to rise
  • Regional steel production outlook (2022-2050)
  • Decarbonisation outlook
  • Japan's steel demand on a downward trend
  • Japan’s steel capacity to shrink by 17% by 2050
  • South Korean steel demand to saturate
  • Capacity to witness a slight uptick
  • Southeast Asia: Demand outlook by country
  • Middle East: steel consumption outlook
  • Middle East steel capacity (Mt)
  • Steel production (Mt) and utilisation (%)
  • Steel consumption outlook (Mt)
  • Steel production outlook (Mt)
  • Canada's finished steel consumption
  • Mexico's Car industry and Construction sector
  • Brazil production and demand recovery
  • Global average crude steel production costs
  • Demand growth by region
  • China real estate–floor space YTD (in mil m2)
  • Chinese developer financing
  • Steel demand declined after a rebound in Q1 2023; overall demand dropped by 3% y-o-y
  • Demand to stay flat in 2024; construction declines to drag on demand after
  • China’s weakening demographics
  • Urbanisation to drop significantly btw 2021-2025
  • Steel demand outlook (2023-2050)
  • Overall steel production by technology
  • Hydrogen steelmaking in China
  • Capital expenditure under the Union Budget 2024
  • Steel demand outlook (Mt)
  • Per capita consumption (kgs)
  • Key decarbonisation initiatives by ISPs
  • Metallics demand outlook (Mt)
  • Steel production outlook (Mt)
  • Japan’s steel supply mix is in for an overhaul
  • Hydrogen-based steel production outlook
  • Crude steel production: EAF to gain prominence
  • Hydrogen-based steel production outlook
  • The fight for decarbonisation
  • Key infrastructure projects
  • BF-BOF capacity on a rise
  • Steel imports share to decline
  • Hot metal production to gain momentum
  • Hydrogen-based steel production outlook
  • EU27+UK steel demand by industry to 2050 (million tonnes)
  • Outlook of steel production by technology
  • Outlook of EU27+UK Metallics demand
  • Hydrogen-based DRI EAF production forecast to 2050
  • European steelmaking strategies illustration
  • Turkish steel supply demand outlook
  • Demand-supply outlook (Mt)
  • Export outlook (Mt)
  • Demand outlook (Mt)
  • Production and export outlook (Mt)
  • DRI production (Mt)
  • Steel production by technology (Mt)
  • US demand by sector
  • US trade and production
  • Average EAF burden mix
  • EAF vs BF-BOF share in total steelmaking
  • China hot rolled coil price and cost
  • Europe hot rolled coil price and cost
  • China rebar price and cost
  • Europe rebar price and cost
  • US hot rolled coil price and cost
  • US rebar price and cost
  • HRC price forecast
  • Rebar price forecast
  • Scrap price forecast
  • Metallics price forecast

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global steel strategic planning outlook – Q1 2024

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