Commodity Market Report

Global zinc investment horizon outlook Q3 2022

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The medium-term outlook for zinc demand will inevitably be influenced by the fallout from the battle between the world’s monetary authorities and inflation. It is increasingly likely that we will see recessions in several of the world’s major economies. Although a global economic downturn is forecast to be avoided, we do expect to see contractions in zinc demand in several countries. Global mined zinc production is forecast to be flat this year compared to 2021 but such stronger growth is expected for the 2023 to 2025 period with the ramp-up of several new projects. This includes a major high grade zinc project that we have moved to our base case this quarter.

Table of contents

  • Wave of new mine projects will see investment rise of over the next few years
  • Corporate governance related issues come to the fore in Latin America
  • $18.5Bn investment needed in zinc mining by 2032
  • Medium-term forecasts
  • Long term forecasts, base case and high-low thresholds
    • China
    • India
    • Europe
    • USA
    • Market adjustments
    • Mine projects
    • Base Case projects
    • Probable status projects
    • Recent financing deals
    • Mine Production changes since last quarter
    • Africa
    • Europe
    • China
    • Asia (excl China)
    • Latin America
    • Oceania
    • Russia and the Caspian
  • Africa
  • India
  • Middle East
  • China
  • Europe
  • North America

Tables and charts

This report includes 32 images and tables including:

  • Upcoming base case projects (kt/a Zn)
  • Forecast investment required in new mine capability
  • Required investment has been achieved in most recent years
  • Capital intensity of operating mines compared to Probable and Possible status projects
  • Price forecasts and refined market balances
  • The zinc market is facing substantial surpluses in the concentrate and metal markets for the medium term
  • Concentrate market balances table
  • Metal stocks to rise in the medium-term which will undermine
  • The relative strength of the dollar plays a key role in influencing the zinc price
  • Requirement for new mine production
  • Cost price relationships are used to forecast long-term prices
  • Global zinc consumption by region
  • Global zinc consumption is dominated by China
  • Developing economies will drive consumption growth
  • Chinese outlook upgraded
  • Changes to mine capability to 2025
  • World mine capability forecasts by region and global market adjustment
  • Current mine production capability is expected to peak in 2025
  • India will drive Asian consumption growth
  • Turkey and East European economies will drive Europe's zinc demand growth
  • European zinc consumption
  • Breakdown of the mine production adjustment
  • Requirement for new mine production
  • Mine project allowance breakdown
  • The mine production capability estimate was cut in 2022 but is to increase in most years to 2030
  • Cumulative impact of changes to the mine production capability forecast for the period 2022-2026
  • Increased smelter production capability is needed from 2027
  • World smelter capability forecasts by region and global market adjustment
  • Requirement of future smelter production
  • Smelter utilisation forecast to rise in the medium-term
  • 2022 smelter capability forecast has been reduced by 322kt with net new capacity from 2024
  • Cumulative impact of changes to the smelter production capability forecast for the period 2022-2026

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global zinc investment horizon outlook Q3 2022

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