Commodity Market Report

Global zinc investment horizon outlook Q3 2022

30 September 2022

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30 September 2022

Global zinc investment horizon outlook Q3 2022

Report summary

The medium-term outlook for zinc demand will inevitably be influenced by the fallout from the battle between the world’s monetary authorities and inflation. It is increasingly likely that we will see recessions in several of the world’s major economies. Although a global economic downturn is forecast to be avoided, we do expect to see contractions in zinc demand in several countries. Global mined zinc production is forecast to be flat this year compared to 2021 but such stronger growth is expected for the 2023 to 2025 period with the ramp-up of several new projects. This includes a major high grade zinc project that we have moved to our base case this quarter.

Wave of new mine projects will see investment rise of over the next few years
Corporate governance related issues come to the fore in Latin America
$18.5Bn investment needed in zinc mining by 2032
Medium-term forecasts
Long term forecasts, base case and high-low thresholds
Overview
- China
- India
- Europe
- USA
Changes to forecast zinc consumption since previous quarter
- Market adjustments
- Mine projects
- Base Case projects
- Probable status projects
- Recent financing deals
- Mine Production changes since last quarter
- Africa
- Europe
- China
- Asia (excl China)
- Latin America
- Oceania
- Russia and the Caspian
Africa
India
Middle East
China
Europe
North America

Tables and charts

This report includes 32 images and tables including:

Upcoming base case projects (kt/a Zn)
Forecast investment required in new mine capability
Required investment has been achieved in most recent years

Capital intensity of operating mines compared to Probable and Possible status projects
Price forecasts and refined market balances
The zinc market is facing substantial surpluses in the concentrate and metal markets for the medium term
Concentrate market balances table
Metal stocks to rise in the medium-term which will undermine
The relative strength of the dollar plays a key role in influencing the zinc price
Requirement for new mine production
Cost price relationships are used to forecast long-term prices
Global zinc consumption by region
Global zinc consumption is dominated by China
Developing economies will drive consumption growth
Chinese outlook upgraded
Changes to mine capability to 2025
World mine capability forecasts by region and global market adjustment
Current mine production capability is expected to peak in 2025
India will drive Asian consumption growth
Turkey and East European economies will drive Europe's zinc demand growth
European zinc consumption
Breakdown of the mine production adjustment
Requirement for new mine production
Mine project allowance breakdown
The mine production capability estimate was cut in 2022 but is to increase in most years to 2030
Cumulative impact of changes to the mine production capability forecast for the period 2022-2026
Increased smelter production capability is needed from 2027
World smelter capability forecasts by region and global market adjustment
Requirement of future smelter production
Smelter utilisation forecast to rise in the medium-term
2022 smelter capability forecast has been reduced by 322kt with net new capacity from 2024
Cumulative impact of changes to the smelter production capability forecast for the period 2022-2026