Global zinc investment horizon outlook Q4 2023 Report

Commodity Market Report 18 December 2023

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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below

Report summary

The near- to medium term outlook for the global economy will be dominated by the response of the global economy to the higher interest rates in the developed economies that have been deployed to bring inflation under control and the success of the Chinese authorities in offsetting the structural downturn in real-estate. Our base case assumption is that a major global downturn will be avoided. Perhaps more significant is the acceleration in disruptions to mine production which have effectively delayed and reduced the expected surpluses in the concentrate market until 2025. The disruptions have been caused by a combination of price induced closures and technical issues at operating mines, a strike and slippage to new projects.

The near-term the outlook has deteriorated for zinc demand whilst the mine supply forecast has been lowered
Cost price relationships are used to forecast prices in the long-term