Global zinc long-term outlook Q1 2018 Report

Commodity Market Report 27 March 2018

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Report summary

The Global Zinc Metal Market Long-term Outlook provides the latest update of detailed supply and demand analysis and price forecasts for the zinc market out to 2035. In the medium to long term, the key issue is whether the zinc mining industry will be able to develop sufficient new mine capacity to offset scheduled mine closures and the incremental increase in global demand. This structural issue has played a pivotal role in the zinc price climbing to its highest level for 10 years in recent months.

Executive summary
- Key Points
- Demand – what's changed?
- Supply – what's changed?
Demand
- Overview
  - China
  - Japan
  - India
  - Europe
    - Turkey is forecast to become Europe's largest zinc consumer
  - USA
  - First and end uses
  - First use
  - End use
Supply
- Mine Production
  - Overview
  - Africa
Supply-demand balances
- Zinc market dynamic
  - Zinc metal and concentrate stock cycle (kt Zn)
- Supply and Demand - Base Case and Long Term
- Long-term Zinc Price Forecasts
- Scenario analysis

Tables and charts

This report includes 49 images and tables including:

Manufacturing activity in all of the world's major economies is expanding
Global slab zinc consumption by region
Global slab zinc consumption by region

Global slowdown a risk
The need to lighten cars helped reduce zinc's intensity of use
Exchange stocks and price
LME cash zinc prices and base case forecast 1950- 2035
Sources of future supply
Forecast stocks and prices
Price forecasts and refined marked balances
Concentrate market balances
US$ Trade Weighted Index versus zinc price with TWI averages
Zinc price forecasts (nominal $/t)
Zinc price forecasts (real $/t)
Comparison of base case and scenario outcomes
China totally dominates global zinc consumption
Chinese per capita consumption will not track Japan and South Korea
Asia (ex-China) consumption
Indian first use is dominated by galvanizing
Manufacturing is expanding in most of Europe
European zinc consumption will stagnate
European construction is picking up
The only certain impact of tariffs and trade barriers is higher galvanized sheet prices
Global first use consumption for zinc
Global zinc consumption by end use
World capability forecasts by region and global market adjustment
Mine adjustment breakdown
African zinc mine production
Asian zinc mine production
Supply: Table 5
Supply: Table 6
Supply: Table 7
Supply: Table 8
Supply: Table 9
Supply: Table 10
Supply: Table 11
Supply: Table 12
Supply: Table 13
Supply: Table 14
Supply: Table 15
Supply: Table 16
Supply: Table 17
Supply: Table 18
Supply: Table 19
Supply: Table 20
Supply: Table 21
Supply: Table 22
Supply-demand balances: Image 2
Demand: Image 9