Global zinc long-term outlook Q1 2020 Report

Commodity Market Report 31 March 2020

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Report summary

The zinc price has fallen sharply as measures to control the spread of the coronavirus trigger a rapid decline in zinc consumption and increased likelihood of a global recession. This has necessitated a dramatic change to our base case assumptions for zinc demand. The Global Zinc Metal Market Long-term Outlook provides the latest update of detailed supply and demand analysis and price forecasts for the zinc market out to 2040, including; • Revisions to our global zinc consumption forecasts • Impact of coronavirus on demand and the likely trajectory of the recovery • New price forecasts and price scenarios • The coronavirus/low price/high TC supply correction • Mine supply developments over the forecast period • The first "In focus" looks at how the impact of this global pandemic will accelerate the migration of manufacturing away from China

Demand outlook
Supply outlook
- Mine production
- Refined supply
Market Balance and Price Outlook
- Near term price forecast
- Long-term zinc price thresholds
Changes since Q4 2019
- Demand
- Smelter Supply
- Beyond coronavirus: Supply Chain diversification in the long run
- Risks to forecast: n ear- to medium-term
- Risk to forecast: long-term
Regional mine production capability
- Project allowance
- Africa
- Asia (ex-China)
- China
- Europe
- Latin America
- Middle East
- North America
- Oceania
- Russia and the Caspian
- Africa
- Asia (ex-China)
- China
- Europe
- Middle East
- Latin America
- North America
- Oceania

Tables and charts

This report includes 25 images and tables including:

Coronavirus is forecast to result in a sharp drop in global zinc consumption
Global slab zinc consumption by region
Global economic growth is becoming less zinc intensive

Summary of zinc mine production capability changes
World mine capability forecasts by region and global market adjustment
Mine production
Requirement for new mine production
Smelter production
Requirement and sources of future smelter production
Components of the Mine Disruption and Project allowances
Forecast stocks and prices
Price forecasts and refined market balances
Concentrate market balances
LME cash zinc prices and base case forecast 1950- 2040
Zinc price forecasts (real $/t)
Cumulative impact of changes to forecast for the period 2019-2023
Consumption forecast has been cut by 1.18Mt compared with Q4 2019
2020 mine production capability forecast has been cut by 0.5Mt Zn compared with Q4 2019
Cumulative impact of changes to the mine production capability forecast for the period 2019-2023
2020 smelter capability forecast has been cut by 0.01Mt Zn compared with Q4 2019
Cumulative impact of changes to the smelter production capability forecast for the period 2019-2023
Chinese per capita consumption will not track Japan and South Korea
Summary of zinc smelter production capability changes
Smelter capacity utilisation
World smelter capability forecasts by region and global market adjustment