Global zinc long-term outlook Q1 2021 Report

Commodity Market Report 29 March 2021

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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below

Report summary

The near-term outlook for the zinc market is dominated by the ongoing coronavirus pandemic and the consequences of the actions of governments to contain and mitigate against its effects. Further out, as the global economy normalises, the key dynamic will be the performance of the world's zinc smelters, especially utilisation rates at China's smelters. We forecast that the refined market will be well supplied for the rest of the decade with a peak of stock days in 2027 of 69 declining to 56 days by the end of the decade. However, such inventory levels fall well short of the peak of 126 stock days seen after the financial crisis in 2008/2009. Read further in our latest Global zinc long-term outlook for details on our market balance and price forecasts out to 2040.

Medium-term forecasts
Long term forecasts, base case and high-low thresholds
Risks to forecast
- Short term - upside
- Short term - downside
- Long term - upside
- Long term - downside
Will SEDEX deposits continue to dominate zinc mine supply and the implications for concentrate quality?
- Implications of different deposit on concentrate quality
- SEDEX deposits will continue to dominate future zinc supply
- Probable status projects of SEDEX origin
Overview
- China
- India
- USA
- Europe
Changes to forecast zinc consumption since previous quarter
- Asia (ex-China)
- China
- Oceania
- Smelter supply changes since last quarter

Tables and charts

This report includes the following images and tables:

Price forecasts and refined market balances
The zinc market is facing substantial surpluses in the concentrate and metal markets for the medium term
Concentrate market balances table

Investor sentiment is expected to support the zinc price despite rising metal stocks
Requirement for new mine production
Cost price relationships are used to forecast long-term prices
Zinc mine reserves by type (% share)
Zinc mine production by type (% share)
Long term growth in zinc consumption will be driven by Asia
Global zinc consumption is dominated by China
Per capita zinc consumption growth will be modest
Structural shifts in zinc's first uses have resulted in a sharp decline in intensity of use
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