Commodity Market Report

Global zinc long-term outlook Q1 2021

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The near-term outlook for the zinc market is dominated by the ongoing coronavirus pandemic and the consequences of the actions of governments to contain and mitigate against its effects. Further out, as the global economy normalises, the key dynamic will be the performance of the world's zinc smelters, especially utilisation rates at China's smelters. We forecast that the refined market will be well supplied for the rest of the decade with a peak of stock days in 2027 of 69 declining to 56 days by the end of the decade. However, such inventory levels fall well short of the peak of 126 stock days seen after the financial crisis in 2008/2009. Read further in our latest Global zinc long-term outlook for details on our market balance and price forecasts out to 2040.

Table of contents

Tables and charts

This report includes 32 images and tables including:

  • Price forecasts and refined market balances
  • The zinc market is facing substantial surpluses in the concentrate and metal markets for the medium term
  • Concentrate market balances table
  • Investor sentiment is expected to support the zinc price despite rising metal stocks
  • Requirement for new mine production
  • Cost price relationships are used to forecast long-term prices
  • Zinc mine reserves by type (% share)
  • Zinc mine production by type (% share)
  • Long term growth in zinc consumption will be driven by Asia
  • Global zinc consumption is dominated by China
  • Per capita zinc consumption growth will be modest
  • Structural shifts in zinc's first uses have resulted in a sharp decline in intensity of use
  • Cyclical downturns have a significant impact on global zinc consumption
  • World mine capability forecasts by region and global market adjustment
  • Mine production capability dips in 2020. New project capacity and mine life extensions needed from 2024
  • Breakdown of the mine production adjustment
  • Mine project allowance breakdown
  • Requirement for new mine production
  • 2020 mine production capability forecast has been cut by 254kt Zn compared with Q2 2020
  • Cumulative impact of changes to the mine production capability forecast for the period 2020-2024
  • Scenario price forecasts in real dollars
  • Scenario price forecasts in nominal dollars
  • Probable status project production by type (% share)
  • 2020's metallic sheet production exceeds the 2016 all time high
  • Chinese per capita consumption will not track Japan and South Korea
  • Chinese outlook upgraded
  • Smelter production capability
  • World smelter capability forecasts by region and global market adjustment
  • Requirement of future smelter production
  • Smelter utilisation forecast to rise in the medium-term
  • 2020 smelter capability forecast has been increased by 119kt and lowered by 95kt in 2021
  • Cumulative impact of changes to the smelter production capability forecast for the period 2020-2024

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global zinc long-term outlook Q1 2021

    PDF 1.25 MB