Global zinc long-term outlook Q3 2020
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
Table of contents
- Medium-term forecasts
- Long term forecasts, base case and high-low thresholds
-
Risks to forecast
- Short term - upside
- Short term - downside
- Long term - upside
- Long term - downside
- Risks to the forecast dramatic surge in new mine production
-
Overview
- China
- India
- USA
- Europe
-
Changes to froecast zinc consumption since previous quarter
- China
- Oceania
- Smelter supply changes since Q2 2020
Tables and charts
This report includes 31 images and tables including:
- Price forecasts and refined market balances table
- The zinc market is facing substantial surpluses in the concentrate and metal markets for the medium term
- Concentrate market balances table
- Investor sentiment is expected to support the zinc price despite rising metal stocks
- Requirement for new mine production
- Cost price relationships are used to forecast long-term prices
- Long term growth in zinc consumption will be driven by Asia
- Global zinc consumption is dominated by China
- Per capita zinc consumption growth will be modest
- Structural shifts in zinc's first uses have resulted in a sharp decline in intensity of use
- Cyclical downturns have a significant impact on global zinc consumption
- World mine capability forecasts by region and global market adjustment
- Mine production capability dips in 2020. New project capacity and mine life extensions needed from 2024
- Breakdown of the mine production adjustment
- Mine project allowance breakdown
- Requirement for new mine production
- 2020 mine production capability forecast has been cut by 254kt Zn compared with Q2 2020
- Cumulative impact of changes to the mine production capability forecast for the period 2020-2024
- Scenario price forecasts in real dollars
- Scenario price forecasts in nominal dollars
- Sources of new production capability in 2021 (Mt Zn)
- Purchasing managers indexes point to V-shaped recovery for China
- Chinese per capita consumption will not track Japan and South Korea
- Europe's recovery shows signs of faltering
- Chinese outlook upgraded
- Smelter production capability
- World smelter capability forecasts by region and global market adjustment
- Requirement of future smelter production
- Smelter utilisation forecast to rise in the medium-term
- 2020 smelter capability forecast has been cut by 0.01Mt Zn compared with Q2 2020
- Cumulative impact of changes to the smelter production capability forecast for the period 2020-2024
What's included
This report contains:
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