In the near-term, smelter production in China is finally starting to grow, taking advantage of the improved availability of concentrates and higher treatment charge revenues. The pace of refined production growth will, however, be limited by the increasingly stringent environmental protection regulations. With concentrate stocks already at high levels it is likely that global mine production will be curtailed in the coming years, especially from mines producing less attractive qualities of concentrate, and all miners will face a sustained period of elevated treatment charges. In the long term, the key issues facing zinc are on the supply side - will sufficient new mine and smelting capacity be developed in the next decade to meet growth in demand for metal? This issue is forecast to result in a structural shift in the zinc market dynamic and the price.