Commodity market report

Global zinc short-term outlook January 2018

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Report summary

The zinc price made a decisive break upwards in January to touch a high of $3608/t, after spending much of the final quarter of 2017 hovering around $3200/t. The move higher was driven by renewed enthusiasm amongst investors. Commodity prices have been given an additional boost by expectations that the US government maybe in the process of disengaging from the "strong dollar" policy that has been a mainstay of successive US administrations for the past 25 years. Zinc fundamentals remain supportive of higher prices, with exchange stocks at their lowest level for 10 years. The potential under performance of smelters globally, and in China in particular, is a significant upside risk to the price outlook for 2018. For 2019 and 2020, smelters remain a key risk to the outlook as issues of increasing smelter utilsation rates transition into the need to construct new smelter capacity.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Global zinc short-term outlook January 2018

    PDF 689.95 KB

  • Document

    Data Tables Zinc STO January.xls

    XLS 339.00 KB

  • Document

    Global zinc short-term outlook January 2018

    ZIP 799.33 KB

Table of contents

Tables and charts

This report includes 26 images and tables including:

Images

  • Dollar weakness helps to boost zinc prices
  • Cash to three months spread moves into backwardation again...
  • ...helped by low LME stocks
  • Chinese imports surge despite high prices
  • US economy gains momentum in H2
  • Chinese smelter revenue: imported spot TC
  • Supply: Image 2
  • Mine and smelter revenue per tonne concentrate
  • Index of monthly Chinese mine production
  • Index of monthly Chinese mine production
  • Index of monthly reported Chinese smelter production
  • China Iron and Steel Institute data a more reliable indicator of activity

Tables

  • Zinc key forecasts
  • Price forecasts and global quarterly supply and demand balance
  • Galvanized sheet and metallic coated sheet production
  • Key indicators of zinc consumption
  • Treatment charges $/t of concentrate
  • Concentrate balances
  • Zinc mine capability, market adjustment and production (kt Zn)
  • Zinc smelter capability, market adjustment and production (kt Zn)
  • Global zinc consumption - (kt Zn)
  • Global zinc mine production (kt Zn)
  • Global zinc smelter production (kt Zn)
  • Zinc stocks, prices and premiums
  • Chinese trade data (kt)
  • Global slab zinc supply/demand balance (kt)

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