Global zinc strategic planning outlook Q1 2023
Report summary
Table of contents
- Long term forecasts, base case and high-low thresholds
- Medium term forecasts
-
Overview
- Medium term outlook
- China
- India
- Europe
- USA
-
Changes to forecast zinc consumption since previous quarter
- Market adjustments
- Mine projects
- Strategic planning outlook - Long term supply considerations
- Geopolitical landscape
- Environmental challenges
- Stricter limits on Chinese concentrate imports
- Africa
- Europe
- China
- Latin America
- Oceania
- Russia and the Caspian
- Smelter supply changes since last quarter
- Africa
- India
-
China
- Europe
- North America
Tables and charts
This report includes 35 images and tables including:
- The relative strength of the dollar plays a key role in influencing the zinc price
- Requirement for new mine production
- Cost price relationships are used to forecast long-term prices
- Price forecasts and refined market balances
- The zinc market is facing substantial surpluses in the concentrate and metal markets for the medium term
- Concentrate market balances table
- Macro economic concerns and rising metal stocks will weigh on the zinc price in the medium term
- Near- to medium-term price scenario price forecasts
- Scenario prices and refined stocks in days of global consumption
- Global zinc consumption by region
- Long term growth in zinc consumption will be driven by Asia
- Global zinc consumption is dominated by China
- Per capita zinc consumption growth will be modest
- Developing economies will drive consumption growth
- Structural shifts in zinc's first uses have resulted in a sharp decline in intensity of use
- Cyclical downturns have a significant impact on global zinc consumption
- Changes to forecasts
- World mine capability forecasts by region and global market adjustment
- Current mine production capability is expected to peak in 2025
- Chinese per capita consumption will not track Japan and South Korea
- India will drive Asian consumption growth
- Turkey and East European economies will drive Europe's zinc demand growth
- European zinc consumption
- Breakdown of the mine production adjustment
- Requirement for new mine production
- Mine project allowance breakdown
- Mine production capability estimate was cut in 2022 and 2023 but is to increase in most years to 2030
- Cumulative impact of changes to the mine production capability forecast for the period 2023-2027
- Increased smelter production capability is needed from 2026
- World smelter capability forecasts by region and global market adjustment
- Requirement of future smelter production
- Smelter utilisation forecast to rise in the medium-term
- 2020 smelter capability forecast has been increased by 119kt and lowered by 95kt in 2021
- Cumulative impact of changes to the smelter production capability forecast for the period 2023-2027
- Power prices are falling from the peak but to remain elevated
What's included
This report contains:
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